After the approval of the State Council and the systematic integration of forestry projects, the State Forestry Administration officially launched six major forestry projects in 2001. Natural forest protection projects and the construction of fast-growing and high-yielding forestry bases in key areas will result in the future consumption of wood and industrial development in China. Important and far-reaching influence. At the same time, as a key breakthrough, with the approval of the State Council, the State Development Planning Commission, the Ministry of Finance, and the State Forestry Administration jointly issued a "Circular on Several Opinions on Accelerating the Construction of Raw Material Forest Bases for Papermaking Industry." According to the spirit of the “Noticeâ€, the National Planning Commission and the State Forestry Administration are preparing the “National Papermaking, Raw Material Forest Base Plan†based on the “Overall Plan for the Construction of Fast-growing and High-yielding Forest Bases in Key Areasâ€. The projects within the plan are expected to receive state funds, Policy-based loans, discounts on fiscal interest, taxation, etc., and appropriate logging management and charging policies will be adopted. This “six major projects and one notice†signifies that China has established a sound forestry ecological system and developed forestry industry system has entered a new historical stage. A series of supporting policies for forestry classification management will soon be introduced. In response to the new situation, we wrote a special report on the fast-growing and high-yield forest, which aims to explore the development bank's situation in the new situation by analyzing the status of China's forest resources, the supply and demand trends in the timber market, and the development opportunities faced by the construction of fast-growing and high-yield forests. Under the overall thinking of supporting the development of fast-growing and high-yield timber forests, the development bank’s credit policy recommendations are proposed.
1. Status of China's Forest Resources According to China's latest 5th (1994-1998) national forest resource inventory statistics, the country's total area of ​​forest land is 263.295 million hectares, of which forest area is 158.94 million hectares, ranking fifth in the world, and the forest coverage rate is 16.55. The total volume of live standing trees is 12.49 billion cubic meters, among which forest reserves are 11.27 billion cubic meters, ranking 7th in the world and accumulating 83.86 cubic meters per hectare per unit area. The natural forest area is 106.965 million hectares, accounting for 70% of the existing forest lands, and the natural forest stock volume is 9.07 billion cubic meters, accounting for 90% of the forest reserves. Overall, China's forest resources are dominated by natural forests, and the forest area is among the highest in the world. However, the forest volume per unit area is low. China's forest resources show the following characteristics:
1.1 China has a large absolute amount of forest resources, but the forest coverage rate is low and the per capita occupancy is small. The forest resource coverage rate in China, which is a forest-poor country, is 16.55%, which is equivalent to only 61% of the world's forest coverage rate of 27%; the national per capita forest area. Only 0.128 hectares, which is 21.3% of the world's average of 0.6 hectares; 9.048 cubic meters of forest per capita, only 12.6% of the world's average of 72 cubic meters.
1.2 The geographical distribution of forest resources is extremely uneven, the structure of forest age is irrational, and the recoverable resources are insufficient. China's forest resources are mainly distributed in the eastern area east of the annual precipitation 400mm line, accounting for 84% of the total forest area, and the ecological environment in the western region is abnormal. Fragile and frequent disasters. The total area of ​​protective forests in China accounts for only 13.9%, which is difficult to meet the needs of the ecological environment. China's forest resources show a trend of younger age, with young and middle-aged forests accounting for 71% of the forest area, and 41% of stocks. The area between logging and young forests during the fourth and fifth inspection intervals accounts for 78.5 of the total harvested area of ​​the forest. %, harvesting accounted for 57.7% of the total harvest. On the one hand, this kind of forest age structure tends to increase investment demand, and on the other hand, it has insufficient resources to recover. Large-diameter timber shortages will exist for a long time, and over-planned harvesting will continue for a long time.
1.3 The total amount of land used for forestry is relatively insufficient. The National Plan for Ecological Environment Construction determines that the national forest coverage rate will reach and stabilize at 26% by 2050. At present, the country's forest land only accounts for 27.42% of the total land area. Since the utilization rate of forestry land is unlikely to reach 100%, it is impossible to realize the goal of achieving a national forest coverage rate of 26% on the basis of existing forestry land. Returning farmland to forests and increasing the construction of artificial forests are necessary measures to ensure the growth of the forest coverage rate.
1.4 The utilization rate of forest land is not high, and the forest productivity is low. On the one hand, the total amount of forestry land in China is insufficient. On the other hand, the main contradiction is that the utilization rate of forestry land is not high. In recent years, both China's forest area and forest reserves have increased, but the growth rate of reserves is far below the growth rate of the area. The area per unit area of ​​woodland decreased from 70.81 cubic meters per hectare in 1993 to 70.38 cubic meters per hectare in 1998, and the existing artificial forest area was 46.667 million hectares, ranking the first in the world. The area of ​​artificial timber forest was 24.15 million hectares per hectare. The average accumulation is only 34.76 cubic meters, and the average annual growth is less than 4.16 cubic meters, which is far below the level of forestry developed countries. The annual growth is only 15% to 20% in Brazil, New Zealand and Indonesia. It can be seen that for many years China's forestry development has focused more on expanding the area, but it has not paid enough attention to the increase in forest growth, and it has not yet shifted from extensive to intensive development.
2. Supply and Demand Situation in China's Timber Market 2.1 Current Situation of China's Timber Consumption Demand 2.1.1 Analysis of Total Wood Consumption According to calculations, China’s consumption of commercial materials is about 140 million cubic meters, and in consumption, domestically produced materials are about 92 million cubic meters, accounting for 64%. %, imported forest products 50 million cubic meters (converted amount), accounting for 36%.
From 1993 to 1999, the total consumption of domestic commercial materials increased steadily. The domestic production of planned commercial materials decreased year by year. Before 1998, the amount of over-planned harvesting increased rapidly. After 1999, it decreased, and the sum of the two items showed a total domestic supply capacity. With a declining trend, imported wood products have grown slowly, and imported pulp and paper products have grown rapidly, with an average annual increase of 20.7%. Based on a comprehensive analysis, the domestic demand for wood consumption has increased rapidly, and domestic supply of commercial materials has shown a downward trend, while imports have increased year by year. In particular, imports of pulp and paper products have increased exponentially. Imports have become the main force to meet the growth in consumer demand for wood. The domestic forest product import dependency is as high as 40% or more, which not only increases the pressure of using foreign exchange, but more importantly it loses the great opportunity for forest industry to drive domestic economic growth. According to the research and forecast, in 2005 China's production and construction timber demand was between 230 million and 240 million cubic meters (including pulp and paper, man-made plates, and large-diameter grades, with a demand of approximately 170 million cubic meters), and the gap reached 60 million. With 70 million cubic meters, the gap in 2015 could increase to 140 million to 150 million cubic meters. The forestry industry has a broad market prospect.
2.1.2 Analysis of timber consumption structure Forestry is a basic industry with a large degree of industry association. Wood consumption is mainly concentrated in the three industries of construction and decoration, furniture manufacturing and papermaking. The rapid development of the real estate industry, building decoration industry, and furniture industry has led to an increase in the demand for sawn wood products, wood-based panels, and other forest products; the rapid development of news publishing, printing, packaging, and information industries has stimulated the demand for pulp, paper, and paperboard. increase. According to industry statistics, the average annual consumption of wood-based panels in China increased by about 20% between 1993 and 1997, and the average annual increase in paper and paperboard consumption was 11.1%.
The large amount of wood consumption is mainly concentrated in the three industries of construction and decoration, furniture manufacturing and papermaking. Focusing on the analysis of these three industries, we can understand the overall trend of the growth of China's timber consumption demand.
——Great potential for growth in demand for building decoration At present, China is vigorously promoting the process of urbanization in rural areas. Real estate development has become the main economic growth point for economic growth, and the building decoration industry has begun to rise, which has led to the demand for wood for building decoration. According to statistics from the Housing Industry Promotion Center of China's Ministry of Construction, China’s annual completion of basic construction during the “Ninth Five-Year Plan†period is approximately 1.2 billion square meters, which is six times the amount of construction completed in Europe in one year. 500 million square meters. According to statistics, in 1999, the per capita living area of ​​urban residents in China reached 9.6 square meters, and the total value of residential decoration in the country was 120 billion yuan. The average annual growth rate since 1990 was 45%, equivalent to 30% of the total annual investment in urban residences in the country. 50% is used for the consumption of all types of timber forest products and consumes about 10 million cubic meters of wood. According to predictions of relevant experts, residential decoration and decoration will reach 200 billion to 300 billion yuan in the next 2 to 3 years, equivalent to about 50% of the total investment in housing. In addition, the reform of the housing system has made it possible for the total amount of public housing for residential housing to catch up with and surpass the decoration of new residential buildings. The market for residential decoration and decoration is promising.
——The structural adjustment of raw materials in the paper industry is imperative, and the demand for wood pulp grows rapidly. In 2000, the output of paper and board in China was 35 million tons, the proportion of wood pulp was approximately 18%, and the consumption of wood was 23 million cubic meters, of which domestic pulp was only It accounts for 6% to 7%, consumes 9 million cubic meters of domestic timber, and accounts for about 6% of the domestic consumption of commercial materials. According to industry planning, the consumption of paper and paperboard will reach 46 million to 48 million tons in 2005, the proportion of wood pulp will increase to 22%, and 38 million cubic meters of wood will be consumed. If the proportion of domestic pulp is increased to 15%, it needs to be consumed. 26 million cubic meters of wood. It is expected that the consumption of paper-making materials will increase at an average annual rate of 23% during the “Tenth Five-Year Plan†period. Pulp industry raw material forests have greater market development potential.
——The development of the furniture industry has accelerated the growth of wood consumption. The average annual output value of the furniture manufacturing industry increased by 16% between 1995 and 1999. In 1999, the output value reached 100 billion yuan. According to relevant department statistics, wooden furniture accounts for about 50% of the total. It is expected that during the “10th Five-Year Plan†period, China’s urban housing construction will enter a period of rapid development, and the growth of furniture production will be maintained at about 10%. In 2005, the demand for wood products for furniture will reach 21 million cubic meters.
2.2 Status of Supply Capacity According to the results of the 5th national inventory of forest resources, the average annual actual consumption of forest resources from 1994 to 1998 was 340 million cubic meters, including 140 million cubic meters of commodity timber, or approximately 92 million cubic meters of exported timber. Compared with the average annual output of the commodity material from 1994 to 1998 published by the State Forestry Administration, it is 33 million cubic meters higher than the average output of over-limit harvesting and deforestation.
As can be seen from Figure 1, after 1995, the domestic production of planned timber and harvesting volume showed a declining trend. This is mainly due to the implementation of natural forest protection pilot projects, reduction of logging plans, and increased enforcement against illegal logging. In 1994-98, the average annual amount of over-quota and deforestation inflows to the market was about 33 million cubic meters, accounting for about 30% of domestic production. Overall, it is imperative to implement natural forest protection projects to reduce over-planned harvesting of medium- and young-age forests, reduce the supply capacity of domestic commercial materials, and it is difficult to meet increasing consumer demand. The degree of dependence on imported timber and finished products has increased year by year.
2.3 Imports of major forest products In 2000, the import value of major forest products reached 9.906 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 23% over the previous year, of which paper products used foreign exchanges of 6.641 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for 67% of the total import value of forest products, and 32.65 for wood products. Billion dollars, accounting for 33%.
The import value of forest products in China has ranked first in the nation's main product rankings from the third position in 1996 to 1999, which exceeds that of petroleum and steel (except machinery and transportation equipment). From 1996 to 1999, the average import value of forest products in China increased by 18% annually, accounting for 4.8% of the total import value of imports from 3.8% in 1996. In particular, the import of paper products and wood products increased rapidly. . The international status of China’s forest products import trade has also rapidly increased. According to FAO statistics, the proportion of China's forest product imports in the total global forest product imports has increased from 4.2% in 1991 to 8.6% in 1997. China’s forest product imports The total world ranking also rose from the 7th position in 1991 to the 3rd position in 1997. After the United States and Japan, China has become a major importer of forest products.
2.4 Analysis of the Deep-level Causes of Domestic Wood Supply and Demand Status 2.4.1 Rapid Protection of the Environment and Economy Constrains Timber Policy Concerns, International Pressure Is Increasing, and Domestic and Foreign Market Follow-up Resource Supply Capacities Are Short "Mainly, the destruction of forest resources is serious. After entering the 1990s, the versatility of the forest has been increasingly valued by the government. At present, China's forest resources have entered the "restoration" stage. However, the national economy still maintains rapid growth. The GDP growth during the 10th Five-Year Plan period is maintained at around 7%. On the one hand, due to an increase in environmental pressure, the state must limit the cutting of forest resources and adhere to the ecological priority principle. On the other hand, the improvement of living standards will increase the demand for forest products, and the demand for wood resources will increase. How to protect resources as well as to develop the forestry industry to meet the needs of the society has made the timber policy in our country more intensified.
Expanding imports can ease in the short term
1. Status of China's Forest Resources According to China's latest 5th (1994-1998) national forest resource inventory statistics, the country's total area of ​​forest land is 263.295 million hectares, of which forest area is 158.94 million hectares, ranking fifth in the world, and the forest coverage rate is 16.55. The total volume of live standing trees is 12.49 billion cubic meters, among which forest reserves are 11.27 billion cubic meters, ranking 7th in the world and accumulating 83.86 cubic meters per hectare per unit area. The natural forest area is 106.965 million hectares, accounting for 70% of the existing forest lands, and the natural forest stock volume is 9.07 billion cubic meters, accounting for 90% of the forest reserves. Overall, China's forest resources are dominated by natural forests, and the forest area is among the highest in the world. However, the forest volume per unit area is low. China's forest resources show the following characteristics:
1.1 China has a large absolute amount of forest resources, but the forest coverage rate is low and the per capita occupancy is small. The forest resource coverage rate in China, which is a forest-poor country, is 16.55%, which is equivalent to only 61% of the world's forest coverage rate of 27%; the national per capita forest area. Only 0.128 hectares, which is 21.3% of the world's average of 0.6 hectares; 9.048 cubic meters of forest per capita, only 12.6% of the world's average of 72 cubic meters.
1.2 The geographical distribution of forest resources is extremely uneven, the structure of forest age is irrational, and the recoverable resources are insufficient. China's forest resources are mainly distributed in the eastern area east of the annual precipitation 400mm line, accounting for 84% of the total forest area, and the ecological environment in the western region is abnormal. Fragile and frequent disasters. The total area of ​​protective forests in China accounts for only 13.9%, which is difficult to meet the needs of the ecological environment. China's forest resources show a trend of younger age, with young and middle-aged forests accounting for 71% of the forest area, and 41% of stocks. The area between logging and young forests during the fourth and fifth inspection intervals accounts for 78.5 of the total harvested area of ​​the forest. %, harvesting accounted for 57.7% of the total harvest. On the one hand, this kind of forest age structure tends to increase investment demand, and on the other hand, it has insufficient resources to recover. Large-diameter timber shortages will exist for a long time, and over-planned harvesting will continue for a long time.
1.3 The total amount of land used for forestry is relatively insufficient. The National Plan for Ecological Environment Construction determines that the national forest coverage rate will reach and stabilize at 26% by 2050. At present, the country's forest land only accounts for 27.42% of the total land area. Since the utilization rate of forestry land is unlikely to reach 100%, it is impossible to realize the goal of achieving a national forest coverage rate of 26% on the basis of existing forestry land. Returning farmland to forests and increasing the construction of artificial forests are necessary measures to ensure the growth of the forest coverage rate.
1.4 The utilization rate of forest land is not high, and the forest productivity is low. On the one hand, the total amount of forestry land in China is insufficient. On the other hand, the main contradiction is that the utilization rate of forestry land is not high. In recent years, both China's forest area and forest reserves have increased, but the growth rate of reserves is far below the growth rate of the area. The area per unit area of ​​woodland decreased from 70.81 cubic meters per hectare in 1993 to 70.38 cubic meters per hectare in 1998, and the existing artificial forest area was 46.667 million hectares, ranking the first in the world. The area of ​​artificial timber forest was 24.15 million hectares per hectare. The average accumulation is only 34.76 cubic meters, and the average annual growth is less than 4.16 cubic meters, which is far below the level of forestry developed countries. The annual growth is only 15% to 20% in Brazil, New Zealand and Indonesia. It can be seen that for many years China's forestry development has focused more on expanding the area, but it has not paid enough attention to the increase in forest growth, and it has not yet shifted from extensive to intensive development.
2. Supply and Demand Situation in China's Timber Market 2.1 Current Situation of China's Timber Consumption Demand 2.1.1 Analysis of Total Wood Consumption According to calculations, China’s consumption of commercial materials is about 140 million cubic meters, and in consumption, domestically produced materials are about 92 million cubic meters, accounting for 64%. %, imported forest products 50 million cubic meters (converted amount), accounting for 36%.
From 1993 to 1999, the total consumption of domestic commercial materials increased steadily. The domestic production of planned commercial materials decreased year by year. Before 1998, the amount of over-planned harvesting increased rapidly. After 1999, it decreased, and the sum of the two items showed a total domestic supply capacity. With a declining trend, imported wood products have grown slowly, and imported pulp and paper products have grown rapidly, with an average annual increase of 20.7%. Based on a comprehensive analysis, the domestic demand for wood consumption has increased rapidly, and domestic supply of commercial materials has shown a downward trend, while imports have increased year by year. In particular, imports of pulp and paper products have increased exponentially. Imports have become the main force to meet the growth in consumer demand for wood. The domestic forest product import dependency is as high as 40% or more, which not only increases the pressure of using foreign exchange, but more importantly it loses the great opportunity for forest industry to drive domestic economic growth. According to the research and forecast, in 2005 China's production and construction timber demand was between 230 million and 240 million cubic meters (including pulp and paper, man-made plates, and large-diameter grades, with a demand of approximately 170 million cubic meters), and the gap reached 60 million. With 70 million cubic meters, the gap in 2015 could increase to 140 million to 150 million cubic meters. The forestry industry has a broad market prospect.
2.1.2 Analysis of timber consumption structure Forestry is a basic industry with a large degree of industry association. Wood consumption is mainly concentrated in the three industries of construction and decoration, furniture manufacturing and papermaking. The rapid development of the real estate industry, building decoration industry, and furniture industry has led to an increase in the demand for sawn wood products, wood-based panels, and other forest products; the rapid development of news publishing, printing, packaging, and information industries has stimulated the demand for pulp, paper, and paperboard. increase. According to industry statistics, the average annual consumption of wood-based panels in China increased by about 20% between 1993 and 1997, and the average annual increase in paper and paperboard consumption was 11.1%.
The large amount of wood consumption is mainly concentrated in the three industries of construction and decoration, furniture manufacturing and papermaking. Focusing on the analysis of these three industries, we can understand the overall trend of the growth of China's timber consumption demand.
——Great potential for growth in demand for building decoration At present, China is vigorously promoting the process of urbanization in rural areas. Real estate development has become the main economic growth point for economic growth, and the building decoration industry has begun to rise, which has led to the demand for wood for building decoration. According to statistics from the Housing Industry Promotion Center of China's Ministry of Construction, China’s annual completion of basic construction during the “Ninth Five-Year Plan†period is approximately 1.2 billion square meters, which is six times the amount of construction completed in Europe in one year. 500 million square meters. According to statistics, in 1999, the per capita living area of ​​urban residents in China reached 9.6 square meters, and the total value of residential decoration in the country was 120 billion yuan. The average annual growth rate since 1990 was 45%, equivalent to 30% of the total annual investment in urban residences in the country. 50% is used for the consumption of all types of timber forest products and consumes about 10 million cubic meters of wood. According to predictions of relevant experts, residential decoration and decoration will reach 200 billion to 300 billion yuan in the next 2 to 3 years, equivalent to about 50% of the total investment in housing. In addition, the reform of the housing system has made it possible for the total amount of public housing for residential housing to catch up with and surpass the decoration of new residential buildings. The market for residential decoration and decoration is promising.
——The structural adjustment of raw materials in the paper industry is imperative, and the demand for wood pulp grows rapidly. In 2000, the output of paper and board in China was 35 million tons, the proportion of wood pulp was approximately 18%, and the consumption of wood was 23 million cubic meters, of which domestic pulp was only It accounts for 6% to 7%, consumes 9 million cubic meters of domestic timber, and accounts for about 6% of the domestic consumption of commercial materials. According to industry planning, the consumption of paper and paperboard will reach 46 million to 48 million tons in 2005, the proportion of wood pulp will increase to 22%, and 38 million cubic meters of wood will be consumed. If the proportion of domestic pulp is increased to 15%, it needs to be consumed. 26 million cubic meters of wood. It is expected that the consumption of paper-making materials will increase at an average annual rate of 23% during the “Tenth Five-Year Plan†period. Pulp industry raw material forests have greater market development potential.
——The development of the furniture industry has accelerated the growth of wood consumption. The average annual output value of the furniture manufacturing industry increased by 16% between 1995 and 1999. In 1999, the output value reached 100 billion yuan. According to relevant department statistics, wooden furniture accounts for about 50% of the total. It is expected that during the “10th Five-Year Plan†period, China’s urban housing construction will enter a period of rapid development, and the growth of furniture production will be maintained at about 10%. In 2005, the demand for wood products for furniture will reach 21 million cubic meters.
2.2 Status of Supply Capacity According to the results of the 5th national inventory of forest resources, the average annual actual consumption of forest resources from 1994 to 1998 was 340 million cubic meters, including 140 million cubic meters of commodity timber, or approximately 92 million cubic meters of exported timber. Compared with the average annual output of the commodity material from 1994 to 1998 published by the State Forestry Administration, it is 33 million cubic meters higher than the average output of over-limit harvesting and deforestation.
As can be seen from Figure 1, after 1995, the domestic production of planned timber and harvesting volume showed a declining trend. This is mainly due to the implementation of natural forest protection pilot projects, reduction of logging plans, and increased enforcement against illegal logging. In 1994-98, the average annual amount of over-quota and deforestation inflows to the market was about 33 million cubic meters, accounting for about 30% of domestic production. Overall, it is imperative to implement natural forest protection projects to reduce over-planned harvesting of medium- and young-age forests, reduce the supply capacity of domestic commercial materials, and it is difficult to meet increasing consumer demand. The degree of dependence on imported timber and finished products has increased year by year.
2.3 Imports of major forest products In 2000, the import value of major forest products reached 9.906 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 23% over the previous year, of which paper products used foreign exchanges of 6.641 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for 67% of the total import value of forest products, and 32.65 for wood products. Billion dollars, accounting for 33%.
The import value of forest products in China has ranked first in the nation's main product rankings from the third position in 1996 to 1999, which exceeds that of petroleum and steel (except machinery and transportation equipment). From 1996 to 1999, the average import value of forest products in China increased by 18% annually, accounting for 4.8% of the total import value of imports from 3.8% in 1996. In particular, the import of paper products and wood products increased rapidly. . The international status of China’s forest products import trade has also rapidly increased. According to FAO statistics, the proportion of China's forest product imports in the total global forest product imports has increased from 4.2% in 1991 to 8.6% in 1997. China’s forest product imports The total world ranking also rose from the 7th position in 1991 to the 3rd position in 1997. After the United States and Japan, China has become a major importer of forest products.
2.4 Analysis of the Deep-level Causes of Domestic Wood Supply and Demand Status 2.4.1 Rapid Protection of the Environment and Economy Constrains Timber Policy Concerns, International Pressure Is Increasing, and Domestic and Foreign Market Follow-up Resource Supply Capacities Are Short "Mainly, the destruction of forest resources is serious. After entering the 1990s, the versatility of the forest has been increasingly valued by the government. At present, China's forest resources have entered the "restoration" stage. However, the national economy still maintains rapid growth. The GDP growth during the 10th Five-Year Plan period is maintained at around 7%. On the one hand, due to an increase in environmental pressure, the state must limit the cutting of forest resources and adhere to the ecological priority principle. On the other hand, the improvement of living standards will increase the demand for forest products, and the demand for wood resources will increase. How to protect resources as well as to develop the forestry industry to meet the needs of the society has made the timber policy in our country more intensified.
Expanding imports can ease in the short term
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