No matter how you play, you don’t play Pokémon GO.
Will you buy around?
The well-known American toy companies, Hasbro (HAS) and Mattel (MAT), may try to learn from the successful experience of the AR explosion game Pokémon GO.
Due to the popularity of Pokémon GO, Nintendo's stock price has almost doubled, and the stock price of the accessory products company has risen. Dave King, an analyst at Roth Capital, believes that due to the success of Pokémon GO, InvisibleShield producer ZAGG will increase its earnings per share by 15%.
InvisibleShield is a tempered film with a price of 13.49 knives. It is said that it can help the player to slide the screen to catch the elf. Although it is not yet certain what the long-term impact is, the fact is that ZAGG shares rose 21% last week.
"Pokémon GO is more likely to have a negative impact on the participation of PCs and console game developers, such as Activision Blizzard, EA and TTWO," said BMO Capital Markets analyst Gerrick Johnson. But traditional toy makers such as Hasbro and Mattel may also have some impact in the short term.
Is AR honey or arsenic?
Other analysts said that although the AR technology used in the game is very good, I don't know how long the game will be popular.
"AR has been around for a while," Johnson added by phone. "Pokémon GO has found a very good channel for AR. In the past, I have only seen companies applying AR technology to toys, Pokémon GO is me. The first time I saw AR was applied to the entertainment industry. Obviously, Pokémon GO will attract imitators, but we are not sure how long Pokémon GO will be popular."
"We can't even judge whether the success of Pokémon GO is due to the AR technology of the game, or its nostalgic factors. After all, those who watched Pokémon when they were young are playing games."
Johnson is pessimistic about when traditional toy companies have the ability to adopt AR technology. In his view, the products of companies like Hasbro and Mattel are mainly to attract children, and their ability to enter the core market through mobile games remains to be seen.
"Many mobile games are used in hospitals or bus stops, but there are not many children there," he said. "I don't think players who play "Call of Duty" will play Pokémon GO."
The target users of Hasbro and Mattel are too young to play mobile games like Pokémon GO. But if they can find a way to apply AR technology in their products, AR technology will be a huge boon.
Startups & industry giants flock to
With great expectations for AR and VR technology, it is clear that Disney is one. On July 11, Disney announced the second batch of startups to join the 2016 Disney Venture Accelerator.
Of the nine startups selected, two have focused on the AR and VR industries and have already invested. One is Jaunt, which has received $100 million in venture capital, and the other OTOY is supported by Eric Schmidt, CEO of Alphabet, and Ari Emanuel, co-CEO of William Morris Endeavor, Hollywood's top brokerage firm.
In February 2015, Google bet the children's AR industry and acquired the children's AR application startup Launchpad Toys. The specific terms of the deal were not disclosed.
Other large companies have also laid out the AR industry. For example, Microsoft is developing an AR version of the "My World" app for HoloLens. The home industry giant IKEA has added AR functionality to mobile applications, allowing users to try out the furniture placement and whether it matches the room layout.
Hasbro has a strong momentum?
In a recent forecast by Jefferies analyst Trevor Young, Hasbro will enter the mobile game industry through acquisitions.
"Although Hasbro stands out in the competition, the game industry is far larger than the toy industry," he wrote on June 22nd. "Because the gaming industry is expected to achieve strong growth, mergers and acquisitions can improve the child." Bao's brand influence."
On July 13, Hasbro acquired Irish animation company Boulder Media, and company CEO Brian Goldner said in a statement that the acquisition will help the company reshape the traditional way of animation production in terms of creativity and finance.
On Monday, Hasbro will release its second quarter performance report. Analysts expect the company's second-quarter 2016 earnings per share to rise to 39 cents from 33 cents a year earlier, and revenue is expected to increase 8% to $860 million from last year.
But Johnson is pessimistic about this, and believes Hasbro's second-quarter earnings per share is 32 cents, with revenue of $782 million, a 2% decrease from the same period last year. In a report on July 15, he said that Hasbro's flagship brand did not perform well.
"What we are worried about is that Disney Princess toys sold well in January this year. My Little Pony toy sales are flat, and Star Wars toys are not selling well, which may lead to second quarter replenishment. The order is reduced," Johnson wrote. "We think the demand for the Star Wars toy market is almost approaching saturation, because the main purchase target for Star Wars toys is children, but now there is basically no way for children to buy Star Wars. The toy."
Mattel suffered a bottleneck?
Johnson is optimistic about Mattel's second-quarter earnings report on Wednesday.
He expects that Mattel's second-quarter 2016 earnings per share will be 2 cents lower than the same period last year, but sales will fall 9% to reach $900 million. Conversely, other analysts generally believe that Mattel's earnings per share will be reduced by 4 cents, and sales will fall by 5% to $934 million.
Mattel’s losses came mainly from the loss of an important contract, and its rival Hasbro acquired the right to produce Disney Princess and Frozen Dolls. In 2015, sales of Disney Princess dolls accounted for 7% of total sales, reaching $440 million.
Another potential downside is the currency.
“Mittal is a global company with 50% of its revenue coming from markets other than the US,†Johnson writes. “As the euro and the pound depreciate, it may affect toy sales and order demand will be affected.â€
Although Johnson believes that these concerns may be exaggerated, he pointed out that the impact of the pound and the euro depreciation is much higher than the yen, the real (Brazil currency) and the peso (some countries in Latin America and the Philippines).
“Although sales have decreased, Mattel’s basket of currencies in the second quarter of 2016 is expected to be 1.5% higher than the weight of December 31, 2015. At that time, the company may take into account the 2016 financial plan.â€
A basket of currencies refers to a foreign currency combination that is used as a reference for setting exchange rates. The proportion of a foreign currency in a portfolio is usually based on the importance of the foreign currency in the international trade of the country. A group of currencies formed by a certain weight. For example, if a country’s imports and exports are 40% dollar-denominated, the dollar’s ​​weight in a basket of currencies in the country may be 40%.
According to Johnson's analysis, sales for the quarter will be reduced by 9%, 6% of which are due to the loss of orders for the Disney Princess series and 2% due to currency changes.
Although Pokémon GO's influence on traditional toy stocks is still inconclusive, Johnson is quite convinced of their potential.
"I know that Hasbro and Mattel don't have toys for Pokémon," he said. However, "Build-A-Bear Workshop (BBW) produces Pikachu toys, and it is possible to produce other Pokémon characters in the future."
Build-A-Bear Workshop A strategic plan two months ago showed that they hope Pokémon toys will lead a new generation of toys.
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