Situation Report, Iran: internet blackout, protests, and nukes

The situation in Iran continues to be a focal point, especially given its pivotal role in global oil supplies and its tense relationship with the U.S. over cybersecurity issues. This month has brought several fresh developments worth keeping an eye on. On the nuclear front, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has accused Iran of obstructing investigations into a suspected 2018 discovery of radioactive materials at an undisclosed location. If confirmed, this could indicate Iran's non-compliance with the nuclear deal brokered with the U.S. and EU. In response, Iran has accused one of the IAEA inspectors of triggering alarms during an inspection at one of its nuclear facilities, leading to her detention and questioning—a move that has been criticized by the IAEA. More recently, Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has cautioned about potential "losses for all parties" if progress isn't made regarding sanctions relief. He stated that Iran would have no choice but to advance toward developing nuclear weapons. Israel has vowed not to let Iran acquire nuclear capabilities, meaning each step Iran takes toward weaponization risks escalating tensions into direct conflict with Israel and potentially its key ally, the U.S. To mitigate the economic strain caused by sanctions, Iran has increased domestic fuel prices, sparking widespread, violent protests across the nation. These demonstrations have paralyzed parts of the country and heightened calls for sanctions relief. Reports from Amnesty International suggest over 100 protesters have lost their lives in a harsh crackdown. Other sources estimate the death toll to be even higher: --- > **200 people killed** > **100 cities affected by protests** > **1,000+ people arrested** > **Millions participating in demonstrations** > *#IranProtests #Internet4Iran* --- A nationwide internet blackout—the most extensive in Iran's history—is now underway as authorities attempt to curb the dissemination of information and disrupt communication among protesters. According to internet monitoring groups like Oracle, this blackout marks the largest shutdown ever recorded in the country. Protests erupted following the government’s announcement of a fuel price hike of up to 300%. Videos circulating on social media show banks, gas stations, and government buildings being torched by rioters. Some chants heard include “Down with Khamenei,” targeting the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The blackout began on Saturday evening and persisted through Monday. While some protests were initially documented on Twitter using the hashtag #IranProtests, the flow of videos has diminished significantly due to the shutdown. --- > **From Shiraz:** A southern area of the city is under protester control—banks, gas stations, and police buildings are damaged. Police have reportedly been given orders to shoot freely, raising concerns over civilian casualties. The death toll is reported to be high, while the northern section remains heavily policed. > *#IranProtests* --- On Tuesday, Israeli airstrikes hit Iranian Revolutionary Guard positions within Syria, retaliating against an earlier missile strike linked to Iran. As events unfold rapidly, staying informed is crucial. For more insightful content and updates, consider subscribing to newsletters focused on geopolitical developments. Stay safe, stay aware.

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