"Civil War 2.0" has become a recurring topic in my social media feeds, often popping up with a frequency that feels almost predictable. While it's a genuine concern for some, it's also a goldmine for media outlets looking to drive clicks. Over the years, I've sifted through countless clickbaits and some insightful pieces on this subject. Below is a curated list of resources that actually deserve your attention.
First up is **American War** by Omar El Akkad. If you're looking to grasp the harsh realities of daily life in a war-torn North America, this book stands out. From refugee camps and suicide bombings to deaths caused by preventable diseases, El Akkad paints a vivid picture of what life could look like during a domestic conflict. Although the premise—a civil war over fossil fuels—might stretch credibility, it serves less as a prediction and more as a cautionary tale about potential scenarios. As a seasoned war correspondent, El Akkad brings authenticity to his work with meticulous attention to detail.
Next is the podcast **It Could Happen Here**, created by Robert Evans. Initially shared among prepper communities, it quickly climbed the podcast charts. I found it engaging, despite the author's clear bias towards Antifa, which becomes evident later in the series. Whether you agree with his politics or not, it offers valuable thought experiments about how and why the U.S. could experience a societal fracture. Evans, a journalist with experience covering the Iraqi Civil War, brings a unique perspective, making it a must-listen for anyone interested in understanding potential future outcomes.
Then there’s **"The Origins of the American Military Coup of 2037"** by ML Cavanaugh. Published in 2017, this fictional account blends elements of dystopian fiction with geopolitical tension. It begins with a Chinese invasion triggered by America's internal strife, followed by the military's increasing involvement in domestic politics, culminating in a coup. While not strictly about a second Civil War, it explores the intersection of political instability and military intervention. Cavanaugh, a West Point Fellow, targets academic discussions, so it may not resonate with everyone. Its political leanings—leaning toward concerns about a right-wing coup—are evident, so take that into consideration.
Interestingly, this essay draws inspiration from **"The Origins of the America Military Coup of 2012"** by Charles J Dunlap Jr., published in 1992. Dunlap's essay remains a classic, addressing similar themes but from a different era. He argues that the decline of ROTC programs and the rise of a more homogeneous officer corps contributed to a disconnect between civilians and the military, ultimately leading to military intervention in domestic affairs. While it shares some ideas with Cavanaugh's work, it approaches the topic from a distinctly 90s context.
For those eager to dive deeper into the mechanics of insurgencies and civil unrest, the **US Special Forces’ Assessing Revolutionary And Insurgent Strategies (ARIS)** page is invaluable. Start with the Unconventional Warfare Pocket Guide, which provides a primer on how the military conceptualizes such conflicts. From there, explore case studies that delve into the intricacies of guerrilla warfare.
Lastly, here are some standout articles and blog posts that offer fresh takes on the topic:
- BJ Campbell's **"Game Theory on the 'Second Civil War'"** presents a mathematical framework for understanding this hypothetical conflict, complete with plenty of references to further reading.
- In **"What a new U.S. civil war might look like"**, Foreign Policy predicts a fragmented, ideologically-driven conflict shaped by technology and digital networks.
- Rick Perlstein's **"Culture of Fear: Miriam Carey’s Tragedy, and Our Own"** revisits the domestic violence of the 1970s, inviting readers to consider how such chaos might manifest today.
- Stephen Marche's **"America’s Next Civil War"** offers a detailed exploration of potential scenarios, supported by expert interviews and polling data.
- Robin Wright's **"Is America Headed for a New Kind of Civil War?"** provides an early take on the subject, examining historical parallels and modern trends.
Finally, Jason Phillips' **"Stop Worrying About a Second Civil War"** counters the doom-and-gloom narrative with a hopeful perspective, suggesting that history shows us how societies can recover from even the worst divisions.
This list should provide a well-rounded view of the topic, whether you're a casual observer or someone deeply invested in understanding the complexities of potential future conflicts.
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