New algorithm subverts global trade pattern China's non-first trading power

As we all know, Apple's mobile phone is processed, assembled and sold in foreign markets in China. Its ex-factory price of $187.51 (2010) is included in China's total export value to the United States, but this is actually the value added of China in the $187.51. Only a few dollars, most of them are owned by Japan, South Korea, Germany and Taiwan.

From the interest sharing and value added of Apple's mobile phone, it can be seen that the current situation of China's foreign trade volume is determined by China's foreign trade structure.

In 2012, the total value of China's import and export of goods reached 3.87 trillion US dollars, exceeding the US's 3.82 trillion US dollars. China has become the world's number one cargo trading country, and its historical significance has been widely concerned by the media, but the problem has followed.

Because this conclusion based on traditional algorithms does not reflect the reality that China's value added to products in processing trade is very limited. In fact, this kind of algorithm based on the national border is more reflective of the real international trade situation at the beginning of global trade, that is, in the era of final product trade, but in the deepening of globalization, cross-border investment, industry The fact that the proportion of intermediate goods trade brought by the transfer is increasing is often led to double counting, which not only distorts the nature of the trade of intermediate goods, but also exaggerates the seriousness of global trade imbalances.

Therefore, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the World Trade Organization (WTO) jointly developed the “Trade Added Value Statistics System” last year. The difference between this algorithm and traditional algorithms is mainly reflected in the statistical caliber.

In comparison, the traditional algorithm uses the entry and exit data of national customs statistics as the statistical basis. Any export goods will be calculated as import or export every time they enter and exit the border; the new algorithm calculates the commercial flow in the vertical trade chain. The net amount of each step in the calculation only counts the actual value-added portion of a country's participation in the global industrial chain. In this case, the added value of an export goods includes the total value of the goods minus direct or indirect inputs.

For example, a trade involving electronic products involving South Korea, China, and the United States involves an international trade process involving: China imports a core component of $100 from South Korea, further processing and assembling it to a final form value of $120, and then $120. Products are exported to the United States. According to the traditional algorithm, this international trade formed a deficit of 100 US dollars against South Korea, and China had a surplus of 120 US dollars against the United States. China’s overall trade surplus increased by US$20 and the total trade volume increased by US$220.

But in accordance with the new algorithm that considers value added, this international trade has formed a trade surplus of South Korea to the United States of 100 US dollars, and China's surplus to the United States is only 20 US dollars.

Comparing the two sets of algorithms, we can find that under the new algorithm, China's trade surplus with the United States has fallen sharply, and the scale of trade has also declined. In fact, according to the traditional algorithm, China’s total import and export volume in 2009 was 2.49 trillion US dollars, the United States was 3.54 trillion US dollars, and China was 70% of the United States. According to the added value statistical algorithm, China’s value-added trade totaled 1.61 trillion US dollars. The United States is 2.69 trillion US dollars, and China is 59.8% of the United States. According to the proportion, the total import and export volume of the United States in 2012 will still be higher than that of China, occupying the top position in the world.

Moreover, according to the new algorithm, not only the surplus of China to the United States has been greatly reduced, but the surplus with Japan and other trading powers has even been revised to a deficit. In this picture of “reversing the world”, global imbalances will be redefined, or will help to grasp a more realistic global trade pattern, which will help China to better understand its global trade status and help countries better grasp Exchange rate direction.

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