Technology is a fascinating faith. It's powerful, as if it were a rope climbing in front of you, and it attracts people forward every moment. This is almost the only thing we can find that "errors also mean progress"-even the collapse of theory and the lack of technology can be closer to the truth because of the benefits and avoid the harm after the comeback. "Trying to look at the world with something new to the world, trying to find convincing value." This was not like talking about Jack Kerouac's journey, but like describing the solid rope. Hold it in your hand and pick up the steps. In 2011, we were already on the road with technology.
The first "brother" of the Earth was discovered, the rise of robot avatars, and commercial space flight took a major step forward. These developments may catch your attention in the scientific report in 2011.
A year ago, "New Scientist" magazine predicted the most anticipated scientific progress in 2010. Some predictions have really happened: the creation of the first cell with an artificial genome and the completion of a Neanderthal genome sketch. But there are also predictions about NASA's decommissioning of the space shuttle, which did not come true. The "Discovery" failed to complete its swan song in 2010.
Now, "New Scientist" magazine decided to cooperate with Samuel Abbotsman of Harvard Medical School in the United States in order to make a more accurate prediction of scientific progress in 2011. Abbotsman is a pioneer of new scientometrics. Scientometrics is a new research field that strives to measure scientific progress. Research predicts when new discoveries will occur.
Abbotsman made a famous prediction based on the known characteristics of alien worlds in September 2010-before May 2011, people had a 50% chance of discovering the first exoplanet suitable for life and survival . It is predicted that a few weeks after the introduction of such a planet, such a planet appears to be suspected. This "livable zone" exoplanet in the stellar system is considered to have suitable conditions for life. In addition, Abbotsman uses this scientometric method to predict other scientific discoveries in 2011 and accurately calculate the time of these new discoveries.
There is no "magic number" element yet
Calculations show that before 2042, people cannot reach the "stable island" at the deepest part of the legendary periodic table.
It is unclear how many particles are needed to make a double-magical super-heavy isotope, but the theory is that it should contain 184 protons and 114, 120 or 126 neutrons. An atom containing 114 protons but still insufficient neutrons has been manufactured. In 2011, can we expect the birth of the first double fantasy island element?
Forecast: Approaching Stability Island
A stable, overweight element should exist, but where does this "stable island" exist on the periodic table of the elements? How long will it take to create the first "islander"?
We have been able to obtain elements that contain 114 protons, but the number of neutrons is still insufficient. This seems to have led the way. In fact, it is not easy to increase the neutron number of element 114 to 184. When an atom of one element "fires" at the atomic group of another element, it will fuse to form a larger atom. But to make an atom with 114 protons and 184 neutrons, a strong beam of radioactive atoms is needed, which cannot be produced by the prior art.
In contrast, it is possible to create magic isotopes of elements 120 and 126 through atomic fusion, but so far only lighter heavy elements have been used.
So, how close is it to us to accomplish this feat? The researchers examined the success rate of the creation of all synthetic isotopes with atomic numbers greater than 100. With the exhaustion of the potential of old technology and the continuous emergence of new technologies, this is a rather bumpy journey. Nonetheless, the researchers have identified a general model that allows the number of protons and neutrons to increase over time. The calculation results show that the magic number isotope of element 120 will be completed in 2042, and the magic number isotope of element 126 will be available in 2052.
Therefore, the prospect of developing an "islander" in 2011 is still optimistic. The 2011 harvest is more likely to seek to dig out the chemistry of existing super-heavy atoms, which may provide some clues about where Stable Island is located.
Looking forward to the twin planets of the earth
Earth people must be thrilled to discover their planet brothers: calculations indicate that this discovery may occur in 2011.
In 2010, a new exoplanet will be discovered every 4 days or so. By the end of 2010, the total number of exoplanets discovered had exceeded 500. But in September, an unparalleled discovery interrupted the steady pace of exoplanet discovery: the first discovery of an extraterrestrial planet on its surface or suitable for life.
This planet named Gliese 581g is the most exoplanet similar to Earth ever discovered, and was discovered by a research team led by the University of California Steven Vogel. The planet is located in the "habitable zone" surrounding its host star. The so-called "habitable zone" means that the planetary climate in this area is neither too cold nor too hot, and there is liquid water that forms oceans, lakes and rivers. The mass of Gliese 581g is 3.1 times to 4.3 times that of the earth, mainly composed of rocks. Although the second group of astronomers failed to use their signals to find their traces, once its existence is confirmed, it will be the most livable exoplanet that humans have found so far.
Perhaps, a bigger award is waiting for us, that is a planet with the same size and temperature as our earth. Our earth is by no means unique, and there must be our "brothers" outside the earth. So, will such a discovery come in 2011?
Prediction: ready to meet the "twin brothers"
Just like the sudden encounter with twin brothers whom you haven't known for many years, people on earth will surely be excited about discovering the second earth.
In order to predict this important moment, the researchers turned to using the "earth similarity" measurement method designed by Abbotsman and Greg Laughlin of the University of California, Santa Cruz in early 2010. This "livability index" is Estimated based on the average temperature and size of the planet. "Hot Jupiter" revolves around its host star in only a few days, and its score is close to zero, while a planet with similar characteristics to the earth has a score of 1.
In September 2010, the researchers marked their livability index based on the date of each exoplanet that was discovered, and derived an exponential curve, from which they speculated that terrestrial planets will be discovered in May 2011. Two weeks later, such a planet, gliese 581g, was born. Of course, whether it is truly livable remains to be confirmed.
At present, the researchers use the same index curve to derive the gliese 581g livability index of 0.4, and made a new prediction. Researchers' data show that the chance of discovering the true twin brothers of the Earth in 2011 was 82%.
This prediction is quite exciting, but it will also be affected by uncertainty, because the discovery date of exoplanets is the only known factor, not to mention, the livability index does not take into account the planet ’s atmosphere.
The discovery of exoplanets will have an outbreak in February 2011, when NASA ’s Kepler telescope will release tide-like data. Even if the twin brothers of Earth did not show up by then, there will be many other exoplanet search missions that can accomplish this mission.
Mathematical problems solved in millions of dollars
In 2010, scientists released a draft paper to solve the "P vs. NP" math problem, "One Stone Stimulates Thousands of Waves." The paper quickly became a hot topic of concern and discussion in the academic world, but then encountered a lot of doubts. So, will "P vs. NP" get the perfect solution in 2011?
The draft paper on the argument of "P vs. NP" submitted on the Internet on August 6, 2010 by the mathematician Vinay Diolarica of the Hewlett Packard Laboratory in the United States was like a whirlwind and immediately set off on the Internet. The uproar. Although Dori Larica also explained his proof during the three times, the authoritative scientist went from initial optimism to suspicion to discovering the loopholes (that is, he did not strictly define the two in the paper. The intuitive concepts that came out were confusing, thus making an imperfect argument). Unfortunately, Diorarica's work was not finally recognized.
However, this whirlwind of Internet controversy has revealed a new way to solve mathematical problems, that is, a large number of new ideas to solve this problem have been generated through blogs and wikis.
The "P vs NP" question was first proposed by mathematician and computer scientist Stephen Cook in 1971. In 2000, the American Clay Institute of Mathematics selected the seven most recognized and most difficult problems in the forefront of modern mathematics, each rewarding millions of dollars for a positive solution. P is one of the NP problems, and it is also the largest in the field of computer science. The problem is related to how fast the computer can complete a task. Solving the NP problem is often a hassle, such as finding the shortest path between several cities—although it is easy to prove whether a possible solution is correct.
If P = NP, the computer may eventually be able to solve a large number of complex problems from protein folding to decomposition of large numbers. Solving the factorization problem is related to the security of the Internet we rely on. At present, the cracking of the encryption system is equivalent to decomposing an integer into the product of several factors. It is the tedious solution process that can prevent the invasion of hackers. Most people assume that P ≠NP holds, and this is exactly what Diorarica wants to prove.
In 2011, will anyone end up with the million dollar prize offered by Clay Math?
Prediction: The time to resolve "P vs NP" has not yet arrived
Unlike many other problems in the scientific field, highly theoretical puzzles like "P vs. NP" are rarely solved piecemeal. On the contrary, they tend to be unsolved for many years, but suddenly they do n’t know where they came from, and the problem was solved.
It seems impossible to predict these breakthroughs, but the researchers devised a method to estimate the possibility of solving the "P vs NP" problem in 2011. The researchers compared their "age" or the time it took to solve the problem with other long-standing mathematical problems.
First, the researchers compared "P vs. NP" with 18 other mathematical problems, which were only solved 100 years after their "born", including Fermat's Theorem and Poincare's conjecture. This makes it seem premature to find a final solution to the "P vs NP" problem in 2011 (when it was only 40 years old): Of the other problems, only 22% were resolved at the age of 40. Based on the same logic, in 2024, we should be able to see the dawn of the "P vs NP" problem. At that time, it was 53 years old, and 50% of the mathematical problems examined by researchers had found a solution by the age of 50.
Let us pray that the resolution time of the "P vs. NP" problem should not exceed the "Honeycomb Conjecture". In the fourth century, the ancient Greek mathematician Pepos proposed that the beautiful shape of a honeycomb is the representative of the most effective labor in nature. He suspected that the honeycomb that people saw with a hexagonal cross-section was created by bees using the least amount of beeswax. That is, if you need to divide a surface into plane shapes of equal size, then the hexagon is the shape with the smallest dividing line length. This problem has been proven over 1500 years.
The researchers also compared the "P vs. NP" problem with 26 other unresolved problems. In 2011, "P vs. NP" was younger than 81% of them.
The pinnacle of network development is near
The Internet has extended its tentacles to all corners of the world in decades, but will there be fewer new users in 2011 than in 2010?
In Finland, Spain and Estonia, the Internet has been regarded as a very important legal right. The development potential of the network is still growing. In 2010, the release of Apple ’s iPad and other touch-screen computers made web surfing more entertaining and intuitive, and the launch of some smartphone operating systems, especially Google ’s Android system, extended the coverage of mobile networks.
Despite the increasing popularity of the Internet in developed countries, the Internet penetration rate is only 20% in the developing world. Increasingly cheap equipment, access to the Internet through mobile phone networks, coupled with the increase in broadband coverage, will ensure that the number of online people worldwide will continue to rise in the coming decades.
However, the absolute number of users is not the only Internet data point of interest. Below, the researchers used the growth rate of Internet access to make some predictions about the recent development of the Internet.
Forecast: Net growth slows
For some people, the Internet is still very new. In fact, the actual number of people online has not been stable for decades. Network development has entered a mature period, and the growth of online users will soon slow down. As a turning point, the number of new users begins to decrease rather than increase each year.
To find out whether this situation on the Internet will occur in 2011, the researchers plotted a curve of the proportion of the world ’s online population growth since 1990, which seems to be consistent with the logarithmic curve. Logarithmic curves are often used to model phenomena ranging from the number of bacteria to tumor growth.
By assuming that the increasing adoption rate of the Internet follows this logarithmic curve, researchers can estimate the time for the adoption rate to reach 50%. In a logarithmic curve, this often corresponds to an inflection point. Calculations show that the Internet will reach this value in 2013. So, if you want to make the number of people online go down immediately, 2011 is still too early.
This estimate assumes that the proportion of the Internet population will eventually reach 100%. If we only estimate at 80% (the current Internet access rate in the US), the world will reach this turning point in 2012.
Plug-in life of the car
Perhaps, the "year of electric cars" has officially arrived. After countless tests and technical upgrades, manufacturers finally made a batch of plug-in electric vehicles drive to the road.
The two factors driving electric vehicles to enter the market in large numbers, or to enter the mainstream in the future, are: the emergence of high-capacity batteries and the near collapse of the traditional US automobile industry. The industry has to thank the economic impact, it is forcing automakers to produce small cars that can compete with foreign suppliers.
At present, the biggest obstacle to the development of electric vehicles is still cost. The size of electric cars is classified as small cars, but the cost is equivalent to luxury cars. Even if tax reduction policies are given in some countries and regions, they can only be said to bring a certain boost. If you want to quickly replace traditional cars with electric cars, you have to work hard on their costs. In a word, you must drastically reduce them. However, the competitiveness and speed of innovation of batteries and power transmission systems should not be too long for this day.
Prediction: Electric vehicles will enter the mainstream team
In 2011, more and more electric vehicles will appear to replace traditional fuel vehicles, and eventually they will join the ranks of a new generation of practical transportation.
At present, the highest price on the market is the Chevrolet Volt. The car is equipped with a 16-kilowatt-hour battery and a 110-kilowatt motor generator. The performance of a single charge can travel 60 kilometers to meet the needs of travel on weekdays and short trips on weekends. As a masterpiece of hybrid power, the car will switch to a 1.4-liter gasoline engine when the battery is exhausted, so it cannot be said that it is a fully mature electric car. Nevertheless, it is said that with the increase in demand for the car, some US suppliers have begun to raise prices, the highest price has reached 40,280 US dollars.
In addition, Nissan Nissan Leaf, Ford Electric Fox and Renault Fluence will be widely used in 2011. Even the Mitsubishi mini i-MiEV, with an engine of 47 kilowatts and a single mileage of 160 kilometers, was launched in Japan in 2009 and will be sold in the United Kingdom and the United States after 2011.
The footsteps of private companies come quietly
The Dragon spacecraft of SpaceX, a US private company, was launched on December 8, 2010 local time, entered low-Earth orbit, and returned, becoming the first private company to complete this series of activities Enterprise spacecraft. Since all NASA space shuttles are on a retired journey, this move is considered to be an extremely important test of commercial space flight in the future.
In 2011, SpaceX planned to conduct more than two demonstration space flights: the first launch of the spacecraft in mid-2011, flying to a location only a few kilometers away from the International Space Station; and the second launch of the spacecraft will be truly Arrive at the International Space Station. According to the contract signed by SpaceX and NASA in 2008, the "Dragon" spacecraft will be responsible for delivering cargo to the International Space Station, and SpaceX founder Ellen Musk even hopes that it will be allowed to take astronauts.
SpaceX is not an exception. In October 2010, Virgin Galactic's space travel vehicle "Spaceship 2" completed its first independent glide, marking the company's further step toward the ultimate goal of carrying paid travelers on space travel. Then, the world's first airport for commercial space travel for the space shuttle, the "US Space Port", was completed in the desert area of ​​New Mexico, adding a boost to the beginning of commercial space travel.
Forecast: U.S. aerospace industry turns private
Spacecraft developed by private space companies can be successfully launched into orbit and recovered. Private prefix participation in the field of space flight has broken the government's consistent monopoly in this direction, but at the same time it can also greatly reduce the cost of space travel.
In 2011, NASA faced the embarrassing situation that all space shuttles were retired and there were no "machines", so that they had to purchase Russian transportation services to and from the International Space Station. It was expected to expand the commercial component of low-Earth orbit flight, so that NASA could free up this part of the money to send astronauts to deeper space, such as Mars.
So, the US government and NASA are changing their thinking in space. Rather than "driving by yourself", it is better to "sell the car and hit it." The figured-out NASA is determined to change from the role of product developer to product user, and actively promote the birth of a private "space taxi", and has invested $ 50 million in private manufacturers such as SpaceX to develop new spacecraft, and The US Congress also stated that it will consider investing hundreds of millions of dollars in this area in 2011 to allow private companies to completely take over the personnel and material transportation tasks of the International Space Station. NASA can also set aside energy and funds to develop higher-end technologies such as Mars exploration.
Embryonic stem cells standing at the crossroads
Human embryonic stem cells are unique in that they can form a variety of tissues and organs. Unlike most other cells in the human body that irreversibly differentiate into proprietary types, only stem cells, a whiteboard, have the potential to develop in multiple directions.
In theory, using one's own cell culture stem cells to repair damaged tissues and organs will not cause rejection by the immune system and is the most ideal treatment. However, there is a conservative trend of thought that embryonic stem cell research must destroy the embryo, and the embryo is the life form of the uterus when humans have not yet formed, so the most striking slogan in the research of embryonic stem cell interference is "Don't play God."
In fact, no matter from the perspective of basic research or from the perspective of clinical application, the benefits of human embryonic stem cells are far greater than the negative effects that may be caused by ethics. However, since 2001, the US government began to regulate related research by restricting funds, which not only cracked down on US embryonic stem cell research, but also dragged down a number of projects worldwide, and some of this type of experiments have to be turned to technically more difficult. The direction of-the use of somatic cells to cultivate stem cells.
Forecast: True Value
In 2011, human embryonic stem cells may prove their true value, and this will benefit from the following two extraordinary surgical treatments.
Doctors at the Massachusetts Institute of Advanced Cell Technology (ACT) spent several weeks injecting human embryonic stem cells into retinal cells, and intended to use this method to delay blindness. As of now, the technology is still in the development stage, but these 11 eye diseases patients will receive human embryonic stem cell therapy in 2011, and it is expected that they will have improved vision after 6 weeks.
But people must know that the treatment of the eye is a special case. This area is insulated from the immune system, where cells are least likely to be rejected. Therefore, to understand the wider therapeutic potential of human embryonic stem cells, other examples are needed.
In October 2010, a paralyzed patient received spinal human embryonic stem cell injection. In 2011, 10 paralyzed patients will be treated with this therapy, which will reveal their potential medical value while repairing damaged tissues by stem cells.
The dream of "robotic avatar" comes true
I am like a sloth in the house, sending a substitute to go to school / work / meeting for me, maybe everyone has dreamed.
A company in California, USA, is developing such a robot, named "TEXAI" telepresence system robot; meanwhile, another company also located in California, Anybots, is preparing to release QB office robot recently, making it too busy. Office workers who are breathless or homeless can appear in two places at the same time.
The QB office robot, or this guy who may be your "stand-in", has the following performance: the base is like a small electric scooter, traveling 6 kilometers per hour; using a laser scanner to avoid books and other office debris; remote The system allows you to remotely control it through a web browser from anywhere in the world; the robot ’s camera is like your eyes, allowing you to monitor the environment of the robot; a small LCD display on its head means the robot Every colleague you meet can also see you and greet you.
Although people will think, even if I am at home, saying hello to colleagues or even talking, I just need a video conference system, not a robot with a price of $ 15,000. However, the technical staff of Anybots Company tells you that once you have a "robot avatar", the owner will get rid of geographical restrictions, control the robot at will, and guide it to complete the work within its ability. This meaning is not trivial.
The technician also deliberately took into account the feelings of your colleagues—although it might be awkward to talk to a robot, people can adapt quickly.
Forecast: Love and fear
There is no traffic outside the window, and I stay at home calmly, and only send remote-controlled robots to complete my work. This kind of thing has developed to the end. Who would wish? But the United States and Japan are now selling "robot avatars" So, people in 2011 do n’t need to be surprised if one day they find a robot colleague sitting opposite their desk.
So this may be the best era. People with modern diseases such as low blood pressure, waking up gas, etc., no longer have to appear in subway stations in the morning, no longer have to worry about peak traffic and time, they can swallow breakfast slowly, because there are remote-controlled "robots" Help solve problems.
This may be the worst era. When we climbed up and rushed into the cold wind and finally sat on the office chair and secretly squeezed our fists to tell us to be a traditional office worker, we looked around but were full of robots. What should we think?
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