Under the influence of a strong earthquake in Chile and a shortage of supply in the pulp market due to the strike of European dockers, the international pulp price, which has been rising for one year, has increased the price of US$50/ton since April this year. Fully implemented, recently, the pulp mill announced that it will increase the price of eucalyptus pulp by US$50/ton in May and the US$30/ton of fluff pulp. Once implemented, the price of North American long-fiber pulp will be close to US$1,000/ton mark. Market participants It is predicted that in the case that the Chilean pulp mill will be fully resumed for a period of time, the post-market pulp price is likely to hit a record high.
The international pulp price has a new market every month in the first quarter of this year. This is a continuous rise that has not been interrupted since March and April last year. It has been one year since then. Such a strong band rise has been rare for many years, mainly due to The impact of rising oil prices, fuels, various raw materials and transportation costs, coupled with climate anomalies in the past year, has made it difficult to obtain slurry, while the Chinese mainland market has strong demand. Under the imbalance between supply and demand, it has pushed up the price of pulp. An important reason for the rise. However, the international pulp price has become higher. Most market participants believe that the price of pulp will fall slowly after reaching the peak in the second quarter, or it will fall back in the second half of the year, but it will be lower due to various costs. Even if the price of pulp falls back, the space is limited.
However, the earthquake that struck in February and the strikes of the European Finnish dockers and the icy situation in the Baltic Sea have all added to the trend of the price of pulp. Not only the pulp mill announced that it will further increase the price of long and short fiber in April, and even recently A pulp mill announced that it will raise the price of pulp in May, which is the fifth price adjustment this year.
It is reported that Chile's 8.8-magnitude strong earthquake hit hard in February, which affected the pulp and wood manufacturing plants in the south-central part of the country, and the two pulp mills in Chile, CMPC and Copec. Coelc's pulp mill, Celulosa Arauco spokesperson Mollen pointed out that only one of the 35 pulp mills and sawmills owned by Celulosa Arauco is still in operation; the logs are still accumulating; the waves also invade the company's timber hoarding in southern Chile. At the office. The CMPC said that the factory has stopped production due to power outages and water cuts after the earthquake. Norway's big news paper supplier Norske also said that the paper mill in Concepción, Chile, has been closed and is about to close the plant "for a while." On the other hand, affected by the port strike, the two major European paper mills StoraEnso and UPM-Kymmene have also closed the paper mill and reduced production. Both companies said that it is only a matter of time before the stocks are used up.
In Chile and Finland, pulp sales accounted for 12% of global sales. After the two factories stopped production, soaring pulp prices will further push up the price of paper. RISI analysts pointed out that a Chinese paper mill said Asian pulp growth will hit a new high, rising $150/ton to $1,050/ton, although it is still unclear whether prices will remain high. Securities firm CelfinCapital also said, "This is a storm. There is a lack of pulp sources in other parts of the northern hemisphere, and prices will continue to rise in the coming months.
In addition, although it has been reported that Chile will take 30 days to resume work, more reports suggest that it takes 60 to 90 days. Arauco has a UKP production plant with an annual output of 355,000 tons, which has been damaged by the tsunami and is expected to be repaired for 6 months.
According to market analysts, the strong earthquake in Chile has caused a new shock to the global pulp supply. Chile's two major pulp mills are being shut down, making the already international paper pulp even worse. According to the disclosure, international pulp has disrupted the supply and demand order due to this strong earthquake. At that time, the market expects that international pulp prices will increase by another 50-70 US dollars/ton in April. At the same time, there may be a crisis of pulp shortage. The 2 seasons of the slurry war will form invisibly.
According to reports, Chile's two major pulp mills CMPC and ARAUCO have 1 to 8 pulp mills, which were severely damaged in the earthquake. It is expected to be restarted within one to two months. The annual output of Chilean pulp is about 4.8 million tons, accounting for the world. 8% of supply. Under the impact of the earthquake, the international pulp price that has been rising for 12 months has been unstoppable. As early as the beginning of March, the international market has been releasing a loud rise, which has increased by 20~30 each time in the past year. Compared with USD/ton, it is doubled again.
According to the analysis, there are about 60 million tons of pulp in the world. The Chilean pulp mill is affected by the earthquake and cannot be produced normally. It will seriously endanger the entire supply and demand situation. The industry believes that from the price of the pulp price, 4 I am afraid that there will be a war of rushing in the month, and even face a crisis of lack of pulp. The historical high point of international pulp prices in 1995 and 2002, the staple fiber has soared to between 880 and 890 US dollars / ton, the long fiber is close to the 1000 US dollars / ton mark, the offer in March, the staple fiber has reached 750 US dollars / ton, although there is still a distance from the historical high point, it is generally predicted that after the strong earthquake in Chile in the second quarter, the increase will be greater than the season. RISI also judged that European pulp prices could climb to $1,000/ton in the short term, a record high.
In fact, in addition to the price fluctuations in the pulp market, the global price of wood chips has also risen again and again. For example, the European large-scale pulp producer Södra (annual production capacity of 2.1 million tons) has been announced in early March to increase the price of long-staple wood SEK30/m3fub, the new price. Will reach SEK315/m3fub. Södra has increased the price of fir and pine sawn timber since February, and has increased SEK75/m3fub and SEK25/m3fub respectively. (Note: SEK is Swedish Krona)
In addition, the continuous rains in the south in the first quarter of this year, delaying the harvest of wood, caused the pulp mill's wood fiber stocks to drop to dangerously low levels, and many pulp and paper mills were forced to stop production or slow down the machine. It is expected that the southern region will not see a dry climate until April and May. The shortage of raw materials has brought a lot of cost pressure to the pulp mill, and it can be expected that the pressure in the second quarter will not be alleviated.
In terms of pulp market stocks, global shipments of commercial pulp in February were 3.332 million tons, which was equivalent to that of the previous month, and increased by 10% compared with the same period of last year. Exports to China were 629,000 tons, an increase of 18.5% from the previous month; North America was 613,000 tons, down 4.2% from the previous month, but up 12.5% ​​from the same period of last year. It was 1.156 million tons in Europe, down 1.2% from the previous month, but up 8.2% from the same period last year. The overall export volume and output were The ratio is 96%, which is higher than 87% in January.
As for the inventory of commercial pulp in February, it was 28 days, which was 2 days lower than that of January. The stock of long fiber was 24 days, which was 1 day lower than that of the previous month. The staple fiber was 32 days, which was 2 days lower than the previous month. The above shows that the decline in global pulp market stocks has also become a boost to the increase in pulp prices.
In addition, the freight rate of the Eurasian route container increased by another wave in early March. Most of the loading rates were as high as 100%~110%. All the airliners announced the freight rate recovery plan. Each TEU is between 275 and 300 US dollars, and the freight rate is 1500. The US dollar has surpassed the profit and loss balance point of 2,000 US dollars. Due to the difficulty in finding a position, even the industry has increased the price of buying a car, which has caused the global aviation operators to implement the empty space plan and the ship speed reduction policy to support the operation. The price has risen. It can be said that the airlines have already passed the downturn of no cargo shipments in the past year. It is reported that at present, there is still a delay in the shipment of containers, and the paper mills need to rush the pulp. There have been cases where the paper mills have stopped production due to the shortage of slurry supply.
Although the strike at the Finnish dock workers has ended and the Chilean pulp mill has gradually resumed production, market participants still expect that the global pulp market supply will not be balanced until June or July.
For a number of reasons, the pulp mill will make a fourth wave of price increases in April after the third quarter price adjustment in the first quarter, including international giants Canfor, Domtar, Södra and BEK, a global commodity pulp mill with a capacity of 5.4 million tons, Suzano. , CMPC, Arauco, etc. were all raised in April, the price of long and short fiber pulp is 40~70 US dollars / ton, in the North American market NBSK rose 50 US dollars / ton, the new price 960 US dollars / ton, BEK 870 US dollars / ton, NBHK 870 US dollars / ton; In the European market, NBSK increased by 40~50 USD/ton, reaching 930-940 USD/ton, BEK rose 50 USD/ton, reaching USD 840/ton, NBHK USD 840/ton; in China and Asia, NBSK rose by USD 50. / ton, up to 830-850 US dollars / ton; Asian market 860-870 US dollars / ton, BCTMP in China increased by 70 US dollars / ton, radiation rose 50 US dollars / ton; Russia NBSK rose 110 US dollars / ton, up to 820 ~ 840 US dollars / ton, NBHK rose 70 US dollars / ton, up to 790 ~ 840 US dollars / ton, as BEK is 800 US dollars / ton.
It is understood that China and South Korea are countries with severe supply reduction of imported commodity pulp after the earthquake in Chile. The main reason is that Chilean pulp exports are mainly in China and Asia, while 40% of imported pulp from China comes from Chilean pulp mills. Södra announced that NBSK in Europe, China and other Asian countries increased by US$40/ton in April. China's distribution of BEK rose by RMB 1200~1300/ton, reaching RMB 7400-7600/ton (about 920~945 USD/ton). Some pulp mills believe that China's NBSK will reach $1,000/ton. NBHK distribution increased by RMB 800/ton, reaching RMB 6800-7000/ton (about 845~870 USD/ton). In 2009, China imported 108.10 million tons of NBSK from Chile, accounting for 22.7% of the total imports of NBSK. Imported NBHK was 653,000 tons, accounting for 11% of the total imports of NBHK. Many small and medium-sized pulp mills have stopped production since the beginning of the year, and now because of the high price of pulp, they will face pressure to shut down the plant.
In addition, APRIL is expected to restore NBHK's original production line of 2.9 million tons per year and increase exports to China. Although the traditional rainy season has ended, the wood chips can only recover 50% of the supply. To restart the production line with 2,700 tons a day can only reach 30% to 40% of the production capacity. It is expected that this production line will not start production until the supply of chips is normal in April.
However, the stock of Korean commercial pulp is insufficient, and some paper mills have arranged for annual repairs in May and June. From January to November 2009, South Korea imported 145,900 tons of NBSK from Chile, accounting for 16.1% of total NBSK imports. From January to November 2009, South Korea imported 257,600 tons of NBHK from Chile, accounting for 29.8% of the total NBHK imports.
In 2009, Taiwan imported NBSK53660 tons from Chile, accounting for 24.1% of total NBSK imports. In the same year, Taiwan imported NBHK90808 tons from Chile, accounting for 32% of NBHK's total imports. Therefore, the Chilean pulp mill was shut down and exported in an infinite amount to Taiwan Paper Mill. There is also a considerable degree of influence.
According to recent international news, most of Arauco's production lines are still down, but it expects its Licancel and Valdivia plants to resume normal operation in April, while Nueva Aldea still takes two to three months, and Constitucion takes two to four months. Production resumed, and another Finnish dock worker strike event, causing a total shutdown capacity of 60% for Finnish paper mills.
It is reported that Fibria has recently announced that it will raise the price of eucalyptus pulp in the world by US$50/ton in May, while the European manufacturer Södra will scream for NBSK$30/ton. It is expected that other pulp mills will follow up and can be expected. The price of long and short fiber pulp is gradually pushing into the historical high.
It is generally believed that the price of pulp in June is still bullish, and the recovery of the Chilean pulp mill and the amount of pulp available will become important variables. However, according to statistics, last year, the global pulp mill had a shutdown capacity of about 3 million tons. Experts expect that it will restart this year, and the new capacity to be put into operation this year will be about 2 million tons, including APRIL's Asia-Pacific forest pulp in Shandong, China. The factory will have more than 1 million tons of new BHKP production capacity to be opened in June, which may have an impact on the price trend of the pulp, and the market is closely watching.
As for the current price of pulp prices in Taiwan Province, the price has reached 26,000 Taiwan dollars, compared with NT$21,000 at the beginning of the year, the increase is about 5,000 Taiwan dollars. Among the two pulp mills in Taiwan Province, Huazhi completed the year in March. The repairs and the Taiwanese papers were repaired in mid-April. The stocks of the two pulps were almost close to zero stocks. Since this year, the dosing has been implemented, and it is still continuing, showing the hot supply and demand. It is expected that the performance of the two pulp mills will be long-lasting this year.
The international pulp price has a new market every month in the first quarter of this year. This is a continuous rise that has not been interrupted since March and April last year. It has been one year since then. Such a strong band rise has been rare for many years, mainly due to The impact of rising oil prices, fuels, various raw materials and transportation costs, coupled with climate anomalies in the past year, has made it difficult to obtain slurry, while the Chinese mainland market has strong demand. Under the imbalance between supply and demand, it has pushed up the price of pulp. An important reason for the rise. However, the international pulp price has become higher. Most market participants believe that the price of pulp will fall slowly after reaching the peak in the second quarter, or it will fall back in the second half of the year, but it will be lower due to various costs. Even if the price of pulp falls back, the space is limited.
However, the earthquake that struck in February and the strikes of the European Finnish dockers and the icy situation in the Baltic Sea have all added to the trend of the price of pulp. Not only the pulp mill announced that it will further increase the price of long and short fiber in April, and even recently A pulp mill announced that it will raise the price of pulp in May, which is the fifth price adjustment this year.
It is reported that Chile's 8.8-magnitude strong earthquake hit hard in February, which affected the pulp and wood manufacturing plants in the south-central part of the country, and the two pulp mills in Chile, CMPC and Copec. Coelc's pulp mill, Celulosa Arauco spokesperson Mollen pointed out that only one of the 35 pulp mills and sawmills owned by Celulosa Arauco is still in operation; the logs are still accumulating; the waves also invade the company's timber hoarding in southern Chile. At the office. The CMPC said that the factory has stopped production due to power outages and water cuts after the earthquake. Norway's big news paper supplier Norske also said that the paper mill in Concepción, Chile, has been closed and is about to close the plant "for a while." On the other hand, affected by the port strike, the two major European paper mills StoraEnso and UPM-Kymmene have also closed the paper mill and reduced production. Both companies said that it is only a matter of time before the stocks are used up.
In Chile and Finland, pulp sales accounted for 12% of global sales. After the two factories stopped production, soaring pulp prices will further push up the price of paper. RISI analysts pointed out that a Chinese paper mill said Asian pulp growth will hit a new high, rising $150/ton to $1,050/ton, although it is still unclear whether prices will remain high. Securities firm CelfinCapital also said, "This is a storm. There is a lack of pulp sources in other parts of the northern hemisphere, and prices will continue to rise in the coming months.
In addition, although it has been reported that Chile will take 30 days to resume work, more reports suggest that it takes 60 to 90 days. Arauco has a UKP production plant with an annual output of 355,000 tons, which has been damaged by the tsunami and is expected to be repaired for 6 months.
According to market analysts, the strong earthquake in Chile has caused a new shock to the global pulp supply. Chile's two major pulp mills are being shut down, making the already international paper pulp even worse. According to the disclosure, international pulp has disrupted the supply and demand order due to this strong earthquake. At that time, the market expects that international pulp prices will increase by another 50-70 US dollars/ton in April. At the same time, there may be a crisis of pulp shortage. The 2 seasons of the slurry war will form invisibly.
According to reports, Chile's two major pulp mills CMPC and ARAUCO have 1 to 8 pulp mills, which were severely damaged in the earthquake. It is expected to be restarted within one to two months. The annual output of Chilean pulp is about 4.8 million tons, accounting for the world. 8% of supply. Under the impact of the earthquake, the international pulp price that has been rising for 12 months has been unstoppable. As early as the beginning of March, the international market has been releasing a loud rise, which has increased by 20~30 each time in the past year. Compared with USD/ton, it is doubled again.
According to the analysis, there are about 60 million tons of pulp in the world. The Chilean pulp mill is affected by the earthquake and cannot be produced normally. It will seriously endanger the entire supply and demand situation. The industry believes that from the price of the pulp price, 4 I am afraid that there will be a war of rushing in the month, and even face a crisis of lack of pulp. The historical high point of international pulp prices in 1995 and 2002, the staple fiber has soared to between 880 and 890 US dollars / ton, the long fiber is close to the 1000 US dollars / ton mark, the offer in March, the staple fiber has reached 750 US dollars / ton, although there is still a distance from the historical high point, it is generally predicted that after the strong earthquake in Chile in the second quarter, the increase will be greater than the season. RISI also judged that European pulp prices could climb to $1,000/ton in the short term, a record high.
In fact, in addition to the price fluctuations in the pulp market, the global price of wood chips has also risen again and again. For example, the European large-scale pulp producer Södra (annual production capacity of 2.1 million tons) has been announced in early March to increase the price of long-staple wood SEK30/m3fub, the new price. Will reach SEK315/m3fub. Södra has increased the price of fir and pine sawn timber since February, and has increased SEK75/m3fub and SEK25/m3fub respectively. (Note: SEK is Swedish Krona)
In addition, the continuous rains in the south in the first quarter of this year, delaying the harvest of wood, caused the pulp mill's wood fiber stocks to drop to dangerously low levels, and many pulp and paper mills were forced to stop production or slow down the machine. It is expected that the southern region will not see a dry climate until April and May. The shortage of raw materials has brought a lot of cost pressure to the pulp mill, and it can be expected that the pressure in the second quarter will not be alleviated.
In terms of pulp market stocks, global shipments of commercial pulp in February were 3.332 million tons, which was equivalent to that of the previous month, and increased by 10% compared with the same period of last year. Exports to China were 629,000 tons, an increase of 18.5% from the previous month; North America was 613,000 tons, down 4.2% from the previous month, but up 12.5% ​​from the same period of last year. It was 1.156 million tons in Europe, down 1.2% from the previous month, but up 8.2% from the same period last year. The overall export volume and output were The ratio is 96%, which is higher than 87% in January.
As for the inventory of commercial pulp in February, it was 28 days, which was 2 days lower than that of January. The stock of long fiber was 24 days, which was 1 day lower than that of the previous month. The staple fiber was 32 days, which was 2 days lower than the previous month. The above shows that the decline in global pulp market stocks has also become a boost to the increase in pulp prices.
In addition, the freight rate of the Eurasian route container increased by another wave in early March. Most of the loading rates were as high as 100%~110%. All the airliners announced the freight rate recovery plan. Each TEU is between 275 and 300 US dollars, and the freight rate is 1500. The US dollar has surpassed the profit and loss balance point of 2,000 US dollars. Due to the difficulty in finding a position, even the industry has increased the price of buying a car, which has caused the global aviation operators to implement the empty space plan and the ship speed reduction policy to support the operation. The price has risen. It can be said that the airlines have already passed the downturn of no cargo shipments in the past year. It is reported that at present, there is still a delay in the shipment of containers, and the paper mills need to rush the pulp. There have been cases where the paper mills have stopped production due to the shortage of slurry supply.
Although the strike at the Finnish dock workers has ended and the Chilean pulp mill has gradually resumed production, market participants still expect that the global pulp market supply will not be balanced until June or July.
For a number of reasons, the pulp mill will make a fourth wave of price increases in April after the third quarter price adjustment in the first quarter, including international giants Canfor, Domtar, Södra and BEK, a global commodity pulp mill with a capacity of 5.4 million tons, Suzano. , CMPC, Arauco, etc. were all raised in April, the price of long and short fiber pulp is 40~70 US dollars / ton, in the North American market NBSK rose 50 US dollars / ton, the new price 960 US dollars / ton, BEK 870 US dollars / ton, NBHK 870 US dollars / ton; In the European market, NBSK increased by 40~50 USD/ton, reaching 930-940 USD/ton, BEK rose 50 USD/ton, reaching USD 840/ton, NBHK USD 840/ton; in China and Asia, NBSK rose by USD 50. / ton, up to 830-850 US dollars / ton; Asian market 860-870 US dollars / ton, BCTMP in China increased by 70 US dollars / ton, radiation rose 50 US dollars / ton; Russia NBSK rose 110 US dollars / ton, up to 820 ~ 840 US dollars / ton, NBHK rose 70 US dollars / ton, up to 790 ~ 840 US dollars / ton, as BEK is 800 US dollars / ton.
It is understood that China and South Korea are countries with severe supply reduction of imported commodity pulp after the earthquake in Chile. The main reason is that Chilean pulp exports are mainly in China and Asia, while 40% of imported pulp from China comes from Chilean pulp mills. Södra announced that NBSK in Europe, China and other Asian countries increased by US$40/ton in April. China's distribution of BEK rose by RMB 1200~1300/ton, reaching RMB 7400-7600/ton (about 920~945 USD/ton). Some pulp mills believe that China's NBSK will reach $1,000/ton. NBHK distribution increased by RMB 800/ton, reaching RMB 6800-7000/ton (about 845~870 USD/ton). In 2009, China imported 108.10 million tons of NBSK from Chile, accounting for 22.7% of the total imports of NBSK. Imported NBHK was 653,000 tons, accounting for 11% of the total imports of NBHK. Many small and medium-sized pulp mills have stopped production since the beginning of the year, and now because of the high price of pulp, they will face pressure to shut down the plant.
In addition, APRIL is expected to restore NBHK's original production line of 2.9 million tons per year and increase exports to China. Although the traditional rainy season has ended, the wood chips can only recover 50% of the supply. To restart the production line with 2,700 tons a day can only reach 30% to 40% of the production capacity. It is expected that this production line will not start production until the supply of chips is normal in April.
However, the stock of Korean commercial pulp is insufficient, and some paper mills have arranged for annual repairs in May and June. From January to November 2009, South Korea imported 145,900 tons of NBSK from Chile, accounting for 16.1% of total NBSK imports. From January to November 2009, South Korea imported 257,600 tons of NBHK from Chile, accounting for 29.8% of the total NBHK imports.
In 2009, Taiwan imported NBSK53660 tons from Chile, accounting for 24.1% of total NBSK imports. In the same year, Taiwan imported NBHK90808 tons from Chile, accounting for 32% of NBHK's total imports. Therefore, the Chilean pulp mill was shut down and exported in an infinite amount to Taiwan Paper Mill. There is also a considerable degree of influence.
According to recent international news, most of Arauco's production lines are still down, but it expects its Licancel and Valdivia plants to resume normal operation in April, while Nueva Aldea still takes two to three months, and Constitucion takes two to four months. Production resumed, and another Finnish dock worker strike event, causing a total shutdown capacity of 60% for Finnish paper mills.
It is reported that Fibria has recently announced that it will raise the price of eucalyptus pulp in the world by US$50/ton in May, while the European manufacturer Södra will scream for NBSK$30/ton. It is expected that other pulp mills will follow up and can be expected. The price of long and short fiber pulp is gradually pushing into the historical high.
It is generally believed that the price of pulp in June is still bullish, and the recovery of the Chilean pulp mill and the amount of pulp available will become important variables. However, according to statistics, last year, the global pulp mill had a shutdown capacity of about 3 million tons. Experts expect that it will restart this year, and the new capacity to be put into operation this year will be about 2 million tons, including APRIL's Asia-Pacific forest pulp in Shandong, China. The factory will have more than 1 million tons of new BHKP production capacity to be opened in June, which may have an impact on the price trend of the pulp, and the market is closely watching.
As for the current price of pulp prices in Taiwan Province, the price has reached 26,000 Taiwan dollars, compared with NT$21,000 at the beginning of the year, the increase is about 5,000 Taiwan dollars. Among the two pulp mills in Taiwan Province, Huazhi completed the year in March. The repairs and the Taiwanese papers were repaired in mid-April. The stocks of the two pulps were almost close to zero stocks. Since this year, the dosing has been implemented, and it is still continuing, showing the hot supply and demand. It is expected that the performance of the two pulp mills will be long-lasting this year.
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