Discussion on the analysis method of photosensitive printing ink market

The concept of "potential demand" is very vague, and "potential" means that something is in some hidden state, not easy to be discovered, or people have not yet realized its existence. The economic concept of “demand” refers to certain demographic indicators or market requirements for different prices, different specifications, quality, supply, and other factors. “Latent demand” is generally defined by economists as the industrial income of a certain market, and such market is often rational, active and full of competition. If the market is productive, then the "potential demand" is a measure of PIE (ie, potential industrial income) or gross national product (not total profit). It often reflects directly the gross national product contributed by the company. "Market" is defined as a specific part of the value chain. There are potential demands for various industries, such as: retail, wholesale, manufacturing, and raw material supply.

The "potential demand" of electronic photographic printing inks is not an increase in actual sales or a potential demand for future sales. In fact, if a market lacks production efficiency, "potential demand" will be lower or higher than actual demand. The lack of production efficiency is caused by many factors, including the lack of international open cooperation, cultural differences in the consumer field, market rules, and traditional corporate behavior. Nevertheless, in general, "potential demand" will still be higher than the actual sales of a country.

In the discussion, we found that the study did not consider the "money unit" factor, but only the potential revenue. The unit of currency used in the report is the U.S. dollar, which does not take into account inflation and future currency exchange rate adjustments. If the currency exchange situation or the inflation situation changes greatly, the actual sales volume will exceed the potential sales volume (using the US dollar for research, without considering inflation). On the other hand, potential demand tends to be higher than actual sales, because the market often affects actual sales due to lack of production efficiency, making it less than potential demand.

As mentioned in the introduction, this study mainly focuses on the natural form of the market. It is an overall and long-term perspective that does not consider human factors and product factors in this market. In fact, all forms of products or services in the current market may be eliminated, and everyone can be replaced by other companies (through exports, imports, mergers, bankruptcy, etc.). The global potential for electronic photographic printing inks will still exist. Production and supply conditions and human factors are not important factors in assessing potential demand.

In order to assess the potential demand for electronic photographic printing inks worldwide, I used a multi-angle approach. Before using this method, we must first understand the basic theory of this assessment. In this case, some economic assumptions are mainly used. In particular, there is an assumption that directly controls the types and forms of potential needs. The "potential demand" affects the income of the country, city, family, or individual's actual consumption. Once balanced, "potential demand" will have an impact at all levels of the value chain. For a market-oriented company, because it senses the "potential demand" of the market and tries to meet it, it wants to increase profits. Because of the "potential demand," the only variable that determines the total amount of consumption is the consumer's income level (whether or not they are on the top of the value chain). Other factors affecting the demand curve include changes in external conditions (such as business operations) and product improvement as required.

Now, let us temporarily ignore the changes in external circumstances. The relationship between income and consumption has become a central issue for economists. In the 1930s, John Meynard Keynes suggested the following assumption: As income rises, the average propensity to consume falls. The average consumption tendency refers to the level of consumption determined by the level of income, or the sloping line from the origin to the consumption index. He put forward this hypothesis on the basis of experience, and proved the correctness of the hypothesis by short-term facts. That is, the higher the income level, the lower the average consumerism tendency. In the 1940s, another economist, Simon Kuznets, proposed the long-term consumption function, which shows that the marginal tendency of consumption is very stable (refer to the long-term economic figures of each country). That is, the average propensity to consume is stable.

Is the propensity to consume stable or changing? Other economists, in particular Franco Modigliani and Milton Friedman, explained in the 1950s why the two hypotheses using different research methods would be so different. The shorter the timeline (that is, the shorter the study reference time), the greater the impact of consumption on the assets currently owned (earned for the past few years) and commercial operations. However, in the long run, the propensity to consume is quite stable. The debate surrounding the relationship between income and consumption is very interesting. In this study, a special school was created. We have accurately referenced the situation in 230 countries to study the potential demand for electronic photosensitive printing inks. The smallest of these countries also has 10,000 residents. I assume that all these countries meet the long-term consumption function. This long-term consumption function does not take into account existing wealth in some countries, and the wealth that is now earned determines the potential demand for electronic photographic printing inks. So, the long-term potential demand curve starts from zero. Despite this, I allow companies to have different propensity to consume (including different curves in the consumption function, which can show the difference between the choices of the industrial organization and the end-user). After presenting this most important assumption, I will now describe the electronic The potential demand for photosensitive printing inks.

First step product definition and digital data collection

Any research on the potential needs of countries needs to set a certain standard for the definition of market productivity. After trying different options and matching them with the market results, I found that the best way is to assume that a country is more productive than other countries. It takes more effort to study this country because there is no available data. Among the many options, I assume that the countries with the highest global income and highest per capita income have the highest market productivity. High income is not a sufficient condition (for example, China has high income, but per capita income is very low, so it can not be considered as the country with the highest production efficiency.) Total income can be generated in many ways, including domestically produced product income (for (Industrial category) or total disposable income (for the household category, the population is multiplied by the national per capita income or population per household per capita income). Brunei, Nauru, Kuwait, and Lichtenstein are countries with higher per capita income, but when it comes to production efficiency, because of the low level of national total income (or total domestic production) in these countries, high per capita income levels cannot Production efficiency brings greater benefits. These oil export countries are subject to OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development), such as the United States or the United Kingdom.

Since not every country is above the average industrial income line given by the OECD, I can only select a few research subjects. Countries with sufficient digital data related to production efficiency include the United States, the United Kingdom, and France and Germany.

Therefore, the "potential demand" can be assessed by using the figures related to the market's production efficiency collected by an independent investigation agency. By analyzing the raw data, we can get the definition of "electrophotographic printing ink". In this report, the data are total numbers and there is no further breakdown. In other words, any other product or service may be digitally printed and integrated into one category. Public digital resources rarely pay attention to and protect companies that may monopolize the market. These resources tend to focus on the public cause. While private data survey agencies can investigate any area of ​​the market, this report is based on the analysis of the average public digital resources, but does not combine a variety of different comprehensive data. In other words, this report does not give overall data. Of course, its starting point is the whole, and the analysis has produced a research report suitable for all countries.

Note: The "electronic photographic printing inks" referred to in this report are defined by the North American Industrial Standardization System (NAICS).

The second step of filtering work

Based on the concept of electronic photosensitive printing ink defined above, we try to collect data from similar countries, and their positions in the value chain are similar. This is done to facilitate comparative studies. If this continuous curve does not show a similar fiscal year, it will need to be adjusted accordingly. In order to eliminate the short-term effects of the business cycle, it is necessary to use a two-year moving average for adjustment to make it smooth (the longer measurement period will not have a greater impact on the results). If data were obtained from one country but the short-term anomalies reflected in those data were caused by changes in external conditions (such as the effects of beef due to foot-and-mouth disease), these data should obviously be filtered out of the analysis.

The third step is to fill in missing data

In some countries, data is decentralized, while some countries can only obtain data for a year. Bayesian's point is that it should take a lot of effort to predict these "lost years." Assuming other factors remain unchanged, these "lost years" need to be estimated from the changes and growth of the country's average income. Based on the most important long-term consumption function theory (already defined), a country's missing data can be estimated based on the curve of past economic data.

Step 4 Variable Parameters and Nonlinear Evaluation

Using the data obtained in the above three steps, the potential demand assessment attached to the country uses the “variable parameter cross-regional time series model”. Simply put, the impact of income on “potential demand” in many countries can be assumed to be constant unless there is evidence that this effect is variability (that is, the stepwise impact of income is not necessarily the same for all countries. ). On the other hand, the "potential demand" of the electronic photosensitive printing ink market is more suitable for countries with the same economic development conditions (that is, African countries will have a similar "potential demand" structure to control the income among the African countries' associations. Variety)

Step 5 Fixed Parameters and Linear Evaluation

Assume that the filtered data in the centralized consumption is non-linear. Since today the world is composed of more than 200 countries, there are always some countries, especially those located at the bottom of consumption activities, that cannot be simply assessed with nonlinearity. In the long run, if a country does not have current income, the “potential demand” for the digital printing ink market is assumed to be zero. Imagine that if the circulation income falls to zero, the reserve wealth will quickly fall (ie, the country will be in a low-income level and will eventually be unable to use its reserves to demand for electronic photosensitive printing inks).

Step 6 Set