[macroscopic]
1. New data: Crude oil price: 47.60$/barrel Renminbi against US dollar: 6.6713 (near a year high)
2. In July, China's manufacturing PMI was 51.4%, down slightly by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The manufacturing trend was stable; CPI rose by 0.1%, up 1.4% year-on-year; PPI rose by 0.2%, up 5.5% year-on-year. stable.
3. Trump ignored the Chinese concerns, signed an administrative memorandum, initiated a trade investigation with China, and increased trade friction between China and the United States.
[paper headline]
On August 12th, Jiangxi Kemei Paper Co., Ltd. started the new high-strength corrugated paper project. It is reported that the project has an annual production capacity of 200,000 tons, a paper machine width of 5,200 mm, and a design speed of 700 m/min. It mainly produces low-weight and high-strength corrugated paper.
Due to the need for environmental rectification, some production lines of Bohui Paper will be shut down for rectification, including 38,000 tons/year straw pulp production line and 140,000 tons of cultural paper project. The downtime cannot be determined temporarily. The machine mainly produces offset paper.
Recently, Sunshine Prince II annual production of 65,000 tons of decorative paper project officially started, the project will build two decorative base paper production line, the width of 1430MM, design speed of 700 meters / minute, the estimated total investment of 260 million, September 2018 production.
In the first half of 2017, the country sold 24.75 million boxes of cigarettes, of which 31 key brands totaled 21.21 million cases (up 3.4% year-on-year), accounting for 86% of total sales, up 1.5% from the same period last year. The sales of the cigarette market showed four trends: the effect of cigarettes was obvious, the development of low-tar cigarettes was low-key, the fine cigarettes continued to grow at a high speed, and the short-selling cigarettes showed a rapid momentum. In the first half of the year, the copper plate grew more than the brand of Tianzi, Jinsheng, Nanjing and Taishan.
Gansu Shengtai Paper's annual output of 100,000 tons of corrugated paper project is expected to start construction in September, with a total investment of about 11,766,100 yuan. The project is expected to require 120,000 tons of waste paper.
Recently, domestic wood pulp prices have continued to rise. The softwood pulp has reached 5,600 yuan/ton, and the broadleaf pulp has 5,300-5,400. In September, the international outer pulp price will increase by 30 US dollars/ton.
Due to the strict influence of environmental protection supervision, paper enterprises in Sichuan have been shut down since mid-July. Most paper mills will be shut down in early August and will be started in early September. The production of bamboo pulp toilet paper is concentrated in the region, and it is expected to be used for household paper. The price constitutes a stimulus effect.
[micro perspective]
1. Due to the early launch of the commercial paper purchase of the publication, coupled with the strict implementation of the environmental supervision before the 19th National Congress and the recent increase in the price of pulp, which has quietly increased by 300-400 yuan/ton, the supply and demand of offset paper will be greater than the supply. The pattern and cost pressure, it is expected that the double-adhesive paper will become the leading breed of price increase in the next stage and trigger the linkage of cultural paper.
2. Short-term supply and demand changes and cost-driven or will stimulate a new round of paper price hikes, but in the near future, the paper market can also be described as chaotic, smoggy, all kinds of letters, downtime letters, limited orders, bombing, many The operating boss also said that there is a fog, if you carefully study the so-called letter of the general manager, the type of the manufacturer, the format of the letter, the wording of the various expressions, the fish are mixed, so spread, it is harmful to the healthy development of the industry, and the operators must rationally identify.
3. Real market trends, it is recommended to grasp the information, paying special attention to: policy trends of large-scale manufacturers, fluctuations in pulp price, actual conditions of market consumption, objective impact of environmental protection, and respective cost starting points. For paper traders, September-November is In the second half of the profit opportunity period, it is a good time for the printing factory to position the price benchmark for next year. The ability to study its own invoicing is more important than the simple price increase.
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