Lead: On November 26, pulp futures will be listed on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. The packaging paper relies heavily on pulp, and the subsequent pulp futures market will promote the paper price into a reasonable range to some extent.
On November 26, pulp futures will be listed on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. According to the draft contract for the publication of the contract issued by the exchange, the trading variety is bleached kraft softwood pulp, the trading unit is 10 tons/hand, and the minimum trading margin contract value is 4%, calculated at the current spot price of about 6,200 yuan. The actual margin is estimated to be only about 4,000 yuan.
The consumption of pulp for packaging paper is first and then the trend
In the paper pulp demand structure of China in 2014-2018, the paper used in culture ranked first, followed by household paper and packaging paper. The consumption of raw paper pulp for cultural paper and packaging paper was first and then increased, and the paper was used for primary use. Pulp consumption has grown steadily.
In 2018, the new downstream production capacity is still mainly based on packaging paper, followed by household paper and cultural paper. However, due to the release of new capacity and the low utilization rate of the original capacity utilization, cultural papers accounted for the whole in 2018. 53% of the pulp demand structure, down 2 percentage points from last year; household paper increased by 2 percentage points to 28%; packaging paper changed little, close to 19%. In terms of raw material structure, the mixed waste paper is prohibited from importing and paper packaging upgrades, and the amount of pulp (raw pulp) may increase in the later stage; however, since the price difference between wood pulp and waste paper is large, the substitution is small.
Pulp futures listing may promote paper prices into reasonable intervals
"In 2017, the spot price of pulp is extremely abnormal. It can be said that the transparency of the domestic paper pricing mechanism is very low. Due to the excessive concentration of pricing power, the skyrocketing price of paper is inevitable, which makes the upstream and downstream industries need pulp futures to serve as a hedging tool. It is hoped that after the pulp futures are listed, it can use its price discovery function to stabilize the price of pulp stock to a certain extent, thus promoting the paper price into a reasonable range." Shen Desheng, the head of a printing and packaging industry, was interviewed by the reporter of China Times. Said.
In this regard, the relevant person in charge of the previous period said that after the listing of pulp futures, it will help to form an open and transparent pricing mechanism for the pulp market, and provide effective risk management tools for upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain. In addition, according to the reporter, due to the large number of enterprises involved in the pulp industry chain, at present, the preliminary investigation of Huatai Futures and Guotai Junan Futures shows that the number of institutions and retail investors interested in pulp futures is large, and the investment enthusiasm is no less than that listed at the beginning of this year. Crude oil futures.
Shen Desheng said that the paper industry is China's basic raw material enterprise, and the entire industrial chain is divided into the upstream pulp manufacturing industry, the middle paper industry and the downstream paper product manufacturing industry. The upstream involves agriculture and forestry, and the downstream involves the packaging, printing and consumer industries of various types of paper products. The whole product involves many industries and has obvious pulling effect on the development of domestic related industries. Therefore, once the cost of upstream raw materials is too high, there is no way to survive downstream.
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