International pulp prices reversed in November after the Asian market remained flat in October. Some market participants expect that the price of pulp will be affected by the weakening demand in the short term, but in the long run, the price of pulp is still rising.
Since the fourth quarter of the previous year, the international pulp price has started to rise at a high rate, a fast increase and an unprecedented long-wave band rise, and even hit a record high. In the first half of this year, although international pulp prices have been flattened in various major markets, they are basically in a rising trend. However, due to the large increase in the price of pulp in the Asian market from the fourth quarter of last year to January this year, the price of pulp in the European and American markets was more volatile after 2 and 3 months.
Until the beginning of the third season, the international pulp price remained roughly flat in the Asian market. In August, there was a sharp correction, mainly due to the downward revision of the NBSK offer. However, the price of NBSK, which only fell back in September, was reversed. The short fiber offer (mainly BEK eucalyptus pulp) is roughly flat.
In the third quarter of the European and American markets, the price of long-staple fiber in the European market was basically flat in each month. However, due to the strong domestic demand in the US market, the price of long and short is almost the same.
In the beginning of the fourth quarter of October, the price of pulp in the Asian market remained unchanged. Among them, Canfor, a large plant with an annual production capacity of 600,000 tons, had a shutdown of the pulp line in late September due to boiler damage. Maintenance, the time is 70-80 days, it is estimated that the production of NBSK will be reduced by about 60,000-70,000 tons. Therefore, it was announced that the price of NBSK will be increased for the Asian market in October, 30 US dollars per ton, but it was ultimately unacceptable because it was not accepted downstream. .
In addition, the European market is also in the same level as the Asian market. Only the international pulp price in the US market continues to rise. It is clear that the supply and demand in this market is quite active and is not affected by the Sino-US trade war.
According to the latest report from Canada's PPPC (Pulp & Paper Products Council), the total shipment volume of international market pulp in September was 4.624 million tons, an increase of 4.4% from the previous month and an increase of 7.1% from the same period last year. Among them, the sales to the North American market is estimated at 642,000 tons, an increase of 3.9% from the previous month, and a decrease of 6% compared with the same period last year. The shipment to the Western European market is estimated at 1.326 million tons, an increase of 7.9% from the previous month and an increase of 8.5% over the same period last year. In addition, it was exported to the mainland China market at 1.49 million tons, an increase of 23.3% from the previous month and an increase of 16.7% over the same period last year. The ratio of the above shipments to production was 97%, an increase of 11% from the previous month. From the above, the demand for pulp in the international market in September is quite strong.
In terms of stocks, the market stocks at the end of September were 37 days, a decrease of 1 day from the previous month. The bleached long-fiber wood pulp maintained the same 33 days as last month, and the bleached short-fiber wood pulp was 41 days, a decrease of 2 days from the previous month. If the balance of days from long fiber stocks is 28-30 days, and the short fiber is 39 days, the market stocks in September will slightly exceed the normal stock.
As for the international pulp price trend in November, the Asian market and the European and American markets are still diverging. After a period of time in the Asian market, both long and short fibers have shown a full reverse. Among them, the emission of pine is 60 US dollars per ton, down from 880 US dollars last month to 820 US dollars, and the long-fiber pulp is down 30 US dollars, which is reduced from 890 US dollars per ton to 860 US dollars. It is reported that Russian NBKP is in stock in mainland China. The price has dropped to 800 US dollars, the smallest drop in fluff pulp, down 10 US dollars per ton, the new price is about 780 US dollars (the highest is 805 US dollars, depending on the individual conditions).
According to industry observations, the price of pulp in the Asian market has reversed in a comprehensive manner. It is mainly affected by the cold demand in the Chinese mainland market and the Sino-US trade war, and the import of pulp stocks of its trade importers is still at a high water level. According to the statistics of the China Paper Association, the production, sales and profits of all types of paper (paper and paperboard) in mainland China in the first three quarters of this year were significantly lower than the same period last year. The main reason is that the production cost of the paper industry has increased by at least 10%. However, the price of paper has risen and fallen, and there has been a significant decline in the near future. Coupled with environmental factors, many paper mills have implemented short-term production suspension plans, which affects revenue and profit. In particular, industrial paper mills have been banned by the ban, resulting in a significant increase in costs, which indirectly affects the benefits.
In the overall production cost of rising prices, the rising price of pulp price is 25%, and the RMB exchange rate has depreciated by about 10%, which has raised the cost of pulp imports. On the other hand, the demand has decreased, which has made the Chinese market pulp. It is not easy to keep the price. Since the beginning of this year, China's pulp import traders have continuously rushed into the international market pulp, which has not only caused the paper mills to reduce the local pulp consumption. As a result, it has been affected by the demand reduction, and the imported pulp is difficult to digest, resulting in a large increase in the inventory of imported pulp. At present, these stocks have yet to be deconstructed, which will naturally affect the subsequent volume and price trends.
Market participants predict that the Asian pulp price, which is dominated by mainland China in the short term, may be a downward trend. Whether this means that the rising price of the pulp price for nearly two years will come to an end and further observation is needed.
However, in the European and American markets, pulp prices continue to show a rising pattern. The European market NBSK is up 20-30 US dollars per ton, the new price is above 1250 US dollars, and the fluff pulp remains flat. In the US market, both long and short fiber price adjustments are 20-30 US dollars, of which NBSK increased by 30 US dollars to 1460 US dollars, while BEK increased by 20 US dollars, and the new price rose to 1290 US dollars. However, some industry players believe that in the short term, due to the fall in the price of pulp in the Chinese mainland market, the price of pulp in Europe and the United States may be adjusted downwards. The actual trend is also worthy of attention.
According to industry analysis, there is no new capacity for international short-staple pulp to be put into the market by 2020. In recent years, fluff pulp will have a new capacity of 800,000 tons of commercial pulp in Finland. Therefore, it is estimated that the price of fluff pulp will be longer than that in the short term. The price of the pulp is stable. It is reported that the global pulp supply growth rate is lower than the total demand growth, and the new pulp mill capacity will not be available until 2020, so it is expected that international pulp prices will continue to rise before 2020.
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