Source: Golden Crown Paper
The core factors supporting the rise of cultural paper:
The advantage of the cultural paper industry pattern supports the paper price, the industry CR4 coated paper is as high as 95%, the white cardboard is 61%, and the double-adhesive paper is 42%;
The cost control capability will become the key to the profitability of the enterprise, which will benefit the enterprises with increasing self-sufficiency rate of wood pulp, and the resource advantage will support the paper price. Chenming Paper's self-sufficiency rate is 69%, Sun Paper's self-sufficiency rate is 50%, and APP's self-sufficiency rate is 45%.
1. The pattern of the cultural paper industry is conducive to the consolidation of advantages
The supply and demand pattern of cultural paper is expected to improve. On the supply side, the new production capacity of cultural paper is limited in the next two years. The new capacity of white cardboard has almost originated from the top four papermaking enterprises. There is no new capacity for coated paper. The new capacity of double-bonded paper is limited, and the annualized production is only about 3%. . On the demand side, demand for double-glued and white cardboard began to stabilize, and the decline in coated paper slowed down, and the supply and demand pattern continued to improve.
The concentration of the industry is high, the big factory has the pricing power, and the price is smoothly transmitted downstream. Among the wood pulp papers, CR4 coated paper is as high as 95%, white cardboard is 61%, and double-adhesive paper is 42%, which is significantly higher than the packaging paper concentration. The bargaining power and price synergy of the big factory are guaranteed, which makes the price transmission in the wood pulp price increase market smoother.
2. The cost advantage of self-sufficient wood pulp is significant, leading the leading edge of resource resources
Raw materials account for about 80% of the cost of cultural paper. From the ratio of raw materials produced by coated paper and offset paper, 0.75-0.8 tons of wood pulp is required as raw material per ton of paper. In the cost structure of coated paper and double-adhesive paper, the proportion of raw materials is about 80%. Therefore, changes in raw material prices are critical to the cost of papermaking companies.
The cost advantage of homemade wood pulp is significant. Taking Chenming Paper as an example, in the first three quarters of 2014-2017, the company's self-made pulp cost can save 1600 compared with the cost of purchased pulp, and the cost of homemade pulp is only 59% of the purchased pulp.
Wood pulp continues to rise in the range, which is good for companies with self-sufficiency in wood pulp. From the comparison of peers, Chenming Paper (the annual production capacity of 3.32 million tons, self-sufficiency rate of 69%) with the highest self-sufficiency rate of wood pulp in the industry is also in the leading position in the industry. Sun Paper (annual production capacity of 1 million tons (including 300,000 tons of Laos projects, self-sufficiency rate of about 50%) and APP (annual production capacity of 2.1 million tons, self-sufficiency rate of 45%) current gross profit margin is also more than 20%.
Sun Paper's self-sufficiency rate of wood pulp has a high room for improvement. The company's existing capacity of 500,000 tons of dissolving pulp can also be converted into chemical pulp. The company's wood pulp supply has certain flexibility; the Arkansas biorefinery project in the United States will be put into operation in 2020, and the self-sufficiency rate of wood pulp is expected to further increase.
Editor in charge: Ge Hongyan
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