Source: Network
After the Spring Festival, the paper market showed a steady upward trend, with paper mills generally rising by 50-100/ton. According to relevant data, as of now, the average price of corrugated paper is 3920/ton, which is 1.62% higher than that before the holiday; the average price of cardboard paper is 4627/ton, which is 1.09% higher than that before the holiday.
However, the market's regenerative changes, the country's waste price turned down, basically announced the end of this round of paper price increases.
So, looking at the whole year, what is the direction of the paper market?
In terms of production capacity, according to incomplete statistics, the total capacity of the proposed packaging paper project in 2019 is about 9.3 million tons: the total capacity of the proposed new project of corrugated paper is about 2.85 million tons, and the planned new capacity of cardboard is about 6.45 million tons. .
However, considering that in 2018, the paper mill's profit margin has narrowed, and there is no shortage of losses. At the same time, some new projects are strictly approved and the company's construction funds are insufficient. The new project capacity in 2019 may be only about 4 million tons.
From the demand side, as the widely used sales packaging and transportation packaging materials, the demand for carton has a very high positive correlation with the growth rate of China's GDP, so the total demand for corrugated and cardboard paper will maintain a positive growth.
However, given the uncertainties in the domestic economic downturn and the decline in export trade orders, the price increase is not expected to be optimistic, only between 2% and 3%.
Therefore, for the late trend of the packaging market in 2019, it is expected to show a trend of pre-emption and post-reduction. The relationship between supply and demand is still an important factor affecting market operation:
1. In March and April, under the expectation of a large reduction in the amount of foreign waste imports, the country's abundance of demand will increase, which will help boost the price of national waste prices. Under the support of increased costs, the price of packaging paper will be dominated by rising trends.
2. With the commissioning of new projects, the supply pressure of the packaging paper market has gradually emerged. In the absence of obvious follow-up of demand, the contradiction between supply and demand in the industry has intensified. In October, the price of wrapping paper may show a low for the year.
3. The fourth quarter is the traditional demand season for the packaging paper market. The market may pick up, but under the bearish atmosphere, the price of paper will rise sharply.
Of course, after all, the paper market is changing rapidly, and any situation can happen.
However, regardless of whether the price of paper is up or down, for the carton factory, when the price of paper rises, it is rational to treat and purchase on demand; when facing the end customer, try not to sign a long-term fixed price contract, which may be to a large extent. Guarantee the interests.
Editor in charge: Xia Jing
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